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The MHP coefficient continued to fluctuate at highs, and stainless steel futures stopped falling and began to rebound. [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary]
Apr 11, 2025, at 9:14 am
【4.11 Morning Meeting Minutes】While the US further intensified its tariff policy against China, it announced a 90-day suspension of the policy to increase tariffs on other countries. This move significantly improved the market sentiment in the LME, which in turn led to a rebound in the domestic stainless steel futures market after the daytime session opened. In the spot market, some low-priced cargoes that existed in the morning basically disappeared as the futures market rebounded, and prices stabilized accordingly.
4.11 Nickel Morning Meeting Minutes
Refined Nickel: SMM April 10 News: Spot premiums/discounts: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 3,100-3,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,200 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium/discount quotation range for Russian nickel was 100-500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 300 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Futures: Nickel prices continued to strengthen in the morning session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 120,370 yuan/mt, up 1.23% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a high of 120,950 yuan/mt.
Spot premiums/discounts: Jinchuan brand nickel prices fell by 150 yuan, mainly due to the recent rebound in nickel prices, prompting traders to lower premiums to boost market transactions.
Macro perspective: Recent nickel price fluctuations have been significant, deviating from fundamental analysis in the short term, with macro factors dominating price trends. Subsequent attention should be paid to European measures in response to the new US tax policy.
Price spread with nickel sulphate: Today, SMM 1# refined nickel prices ranged from 120,000-124,050 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,025 yuan/mt, up 1,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's spot price. Currently, refined nickel is at a discount of about 6,200 yuan/mt to nickel sulphate, and the spread should be closely monitored.
Nickel Sulphate: On April 10, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,955 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 27,920-28,500 yuan/mt, and the average price remained stable compared to the previous day.
Cost side: Based on the reduction in Indonesian high-ice nickel, market demand for MHP has increased, driving the MHP coefficient higher. Recent floods in Indonesia have reduced MHP supply, further pushing up the MHP quotation coefficient. LME nickel prices have continued to decline due to US tariff policies. Overall production costs for nickel salt smelters have pulled back. Supply side: This week, due to lower production costs, some nickel salt smelters have lowered their quotations. Some smelters have not adjusted their quotations due to insufficient raw material inventory for Q2 and the persistently high MHP coefficient. Demand side: Some downstream buyers have lowered their acceptable price levels, and precursor plants remain cautiously观望, with low market inquiry activity. Looking ahead, nickel sulphate prices are expected to decline due to weaker costs, but the decline is expected to be limited due to tight supply and demand for nickel salts.
Nickel Pig Iron: On April 10, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 1,005.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 6 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side: Domestically, current smelter nickel ore inventories are low, and shipments of Philippine nickel ore have increased, but it will take time to reach domestic ports. Coupled with thin smelter profits, production is weak, and output remains low. Demand side: The impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy is intensifying, and during the Qingming Festival, LME non-ferrous metals fell sharply, with nickel prices hitting a near-year low. Stainless steel spot prices are weak, and today's market inquiries are sluggish. High-grade NPI prices have pulled back due to weak downstream procurement, and prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term.
Stainless Steel: On April 10, while the US further escalated tariffs on China, it announced a 90-day suspension of tariff increases on other countries. This move significantly improved LME market sentiment, and domestic stainless steel futures rebounded after the daytime session opened. In the spot market, some low-priced goods in the morning disappeared as futures rebounded, and prices stabilized.
Futures: The most-traded contract 2505 fluctuated considerably. At 10:30 am, SS2505 was quoted at 12,775 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the 304/2B spot premium/discount range was 445-745 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both quoted at 8,300 yuan/mt; cold-rolled cut edge 304/2B coils averaged 13,200 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,250 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were quoted at 24,250 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 24,500 yuan/mt in Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted at 23,550 yuan/mt in both regions; cold-rolled 430/2B coils were quoted at 7,500 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.
Currently, under the impact of low-priced warrant goods, the stainless steel spot market is dominated by low-price, just-in-time transactions. However, the market has shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Moreover, the market is relatively optimistic about the cost support for stainless steel. If subsequent policy and news disturbances gradually weaken, stainless steel prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Nickel Ore: Last week, prices for low-nickel and high-grade nickel ore in the Philippines remained stable. From a supply and demand perspective, shipments of medium and high-frequency nickel ore from Surigao mines increased significantly during the week, but supply recovery was limited due to rainfall in the southern region. On the demand side, most domestic nickel pig iron plants still have low inventories, with strong demand for raw material procurement and high enthusiasm for purchasing. Although the recent rise in downstream high-grade NPI prices has brought some profit recovery, domestic iron plants are still in a loss-making position, with limited ability to accept high-priced nickel ore. Ocean freight rates: Ocean freight rates fell slightly during the week, with rates from Surigao to Lianyungang, China, down by $10-10.5/wmt. Additionally, starting in April, Indonesian nickel ore prices rose sharply. Overall, SMM expects that after the surge in Philippine prices in March due to strong supply and weak demand and rising Indonesian ore prices, Philippine nickel ore prices may remain stable in the short term.
Current market transaction prices: For pyrometallurgical ore, the delivery-to-factory price for Indonesian local ore with 1.6% nickel content is about $51-52/wmt; for hydrometallurgical ore, the delivery-to-factory price for Indonesian local ore with 1.3% nickel content is about $25-26/wmt. Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore prices rose again in April, with the current mainstream premium for Sulawesi Island at $24-25. Hydrometallurgical ore CIF prices remain stable but weak. Supply side: This year, the rainy season in Sulawesi has lasted longer, with frequent rainfall during the week, affecting nickel ore mining and transportation. Supply recovery in main mining areas such as Sulawesi is relatively slow. Additionally, last week was the Indonesian Lebaran holiday, with local mines and workers on holiday, and transactions were relatively sluggish. Demand side: Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters generally have low raw material inventories and need to restock just-in-time, coupled with expectations of NPI production increases, demand-side support remains. SMM expects nickel ore supply may continue to be tight. Policy side: The implementation of the PNBP policy has been delayed. According to SMM, relevant Indonesian government departments are still discussing some details of the policy, and the market still strongly expects the policy to be implemented soon. Hydrometallurgical ore side: Downstream MHP has strong expectations for short-term production cuts, and demand support has weakened significantly, with prices likely to remain weak. Overall, SMM expects Indonesian local pyrometallurgical nickel ore prices may continue to rise, while Indonesian local hydrometallurgical nickel ore prices may remain stable but weak.
