The US dollar weakened, metals generally declined, SHFE tin fell by over 5%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc dropped by more than 2%, and NY gold rose by over 2% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM April 9 News: Metal Market: By the close of the day, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell, with SHFE tin leading the decline by up to 5.55%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both dropped over 2%, with SHFE aluminum down 2.1% and SHFE zinc down 2.75%. SHFE copper and SHFE lead both fell more than 1%, with SHFE copper down 1.78% and SHFE lead down 1.38%. SHFE nickel had the smallest drop, at 0.21%. Alumina main contract rose 0.97%. Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract fell 1.05%, silicon metal main contract fell 0.52%, polysilicon main contract fell 0.01%, and the European container shipping main contract fell 6.57%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, only LME nickel among the base metals rose, with an increase of 0.46%. LME tin fell 2.92%. LME aluminum and LME zinc both dropped over 1%, with LME aluminum down 1.51% and LME zinc down 1.31%. The rest of the metals fell within 1%. The ferrous metals series collectively declined, with iron ore down 2.68%, stainless steel, HRC, and rebar all fell over 1%, with stainless steel down 1.9%, rebar down 1.37%, and HRC down 1.11%. Coking coal and coke both fell over 3%, with coke down 3.24% and coking coal down 4.03%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 2.02%, and COMEX silver rose 1.53%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.72%, and SHFE silver rose 1.06%. KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said, "The decline in the US dollar due to tariff concerns has effectively paved the way for gold to reclaim the $3,000 mark. Gold prices may still hit new highs due to uncertainties in global economic growth and inflation, although gold experienced some turbulence in last week's movements." As of 15:03 today's market. Click to view the SMM market board. Macro Front: Domestically: The Central Peripheral Work Conference was held in Beijing from April 8 to 9. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, attended the meeting and delivered an important speech. Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi, members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, and Vice President Han Zheng attended the meeting. In his important speech, Xi Jinping systematically summarized the achievements and experiences of China's peripheral work since the new era, scientifically analyzed the situation, clarified the goals, tasks, and measures for peripheral work in the coming period, and emphasized the need to focus on building a community with a shared future for the periphery and strive to create a new situation in peripheral work. Li Qiang, while presiding over the meeting, emphasized the need to seriously implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech and solidly carry out various tasks in peripheral work. In February this year, China's corporate credit index rose slightly. According to the State Administration for Market Regulation, China's corporate credit index in February was 160.73. As various macro policies continue to take effect, the trend of corporate credit levels improving is evident. In February this year, China's corporate credit index rose by 0.25 points compared to January. The reliability sub-indicator, operational sub-indicator, financial sub-indicator, and correlation sub-indicator remained stable overall, the compliance sub-indicator rose slightly MoM, the regulatory sub-indicator fell slightly MoM, but the proportion of low credit risk enterprises increased, and the overall corporate credit level improved. On April 9, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2066 yuan per US dollar. In terms of the US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell 0.9%. With equivalent tariffs about to take effect, the future direction of tariff policy remains uncertain, and the US Fed is caught in a dilemma between rapidly rising inflation and a significant economic slowdown. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the scale of tariffs announced by US President Trump "far exceeded expectations," and it is currently unclear how quickly or to what extent these higher costs will be passed on to consumers, and to what extent businesses and consumers will choose to cut spending in response, thereby slowing economic growth. San Francisco Fed President Daly believes there is no rush to cut interest rates because the economy and labor market remain robust, and there are still many uncertainties about the scale and scope of Trump's tariff policy. Concerns about a global economic recession are heating up. The market is waiting for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting later today. Traders are also waiting for Thursday's US Consumer Price Index data and Friday's Producer Price Index data to understand the Fed's interest rate trajectory. JPMorgan recently stated that the probability of a recession reflected by stocks closely related to the US economy has soared to nearly 80%. According to JPMorgan's market-based recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which is dominated by small-cap stocks and has been hit hard in recent sell-offs, currently shows a 79% probability of a US recession. In terms of data: Today, the final value of the US February wholesale inventory MoM rate and the US April IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index PCSI will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a dialogue event titled "Fed Economic Outlook and Work"; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment report; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr will hold a monetary policy press conference; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will give a speech; US equivalent tariffs will officially take effect. In terms of crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell over 2%, with US oil down 2.79% and Brent oil down 2.45%. The scale of the equivalent tariff policy implemented by the US far exceeded market expectations, leading to continued investor concerns about the escalation of global trade frictions. In the short term, risk aversion will remain the core logic dominating crude oil market trading. In terms of impact, the direct tariff policy on energy commodities actually involves less, and the macro-level systemic risk is the main driver of the recent sharp decline in oil prices. The current crude oil market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere and shows strong emotional characteristics. On the other hand, OPEC+ plans to increase production in May, and the expectation of a supply surplus is gradually strengthening. OPEC's official website released news on April 3 that Saudi Arabia, Russia, and 8 other member states held a video conference and decided to increase daily crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels from early May, three times the original plan. Saudi Arabia and Russia aim to punish Kazakhstan and other OPEC+ members who have long overproduced. With market oil prices maintaining a relatively high level, Saudi Arabia, as the leader of OPEC, has shown a high tolerance for overproduction by Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other oil-producing countries; however, as the downward pressure on crude oil prices has increased recently, the impact of these countries' continued overproduction on Saudi Arabia's market share is gradually magnifying, prompting Saudi Arabia to adjust its policy stance of cutting production to maintain prices. In terms of actual inventory levels, US commercial crude oil was in an overall inventory buildup state in Q1, with inventory levels at the end of March increasing by more than 6 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. The latest data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday showed that as of the week of April 4, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels; gasoline inventories increased by 210,000 barrels; and distillate oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels. In terms of market reaction, the inventory data released by API this time had a minimal boost to oil prices, reflecting that investors are still focusing on the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and need time to fully digest the negative impact released at the macro level. SMM Daily Review: Aluminum prices fell again, and aluminum scrap suppliers have different intentions to adjust prices [Aluminum Scrap Daily Review]. The decline in aluminum prices continues, and secondary aluminum prices continue to follow the decline [ADC12 Price Daily Review]. [SMM MHP Daily Review] On April 9, Indonesian MHP prices pulled back. [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On April 9, nickel sulphate prices fell. Market procurement enthusiasm is high, and medium-heavy rare earth prices continue to rise [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review].

SMM

The US dollar weakened, metals generally declined, SHFE tin fell by over 5%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc dropped by more than 2%, and NY gold rose by over 2% [SMM Daily Review]

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