Oil prices hit a nearly four-year low, metals generally rose, LME zinc surged over 1%, New York silver rose nearly 3%, and SHFE copper fell over 2% [Overnight Market].

SMM April 8 News: In the metal market, domestic base metals showed mixed performance overnight. SHFE tin fell by 1.06%, SHFE copper dropped by 2.05%, SHFE nickel rose slightly, SHFE lead decreased by 0.15%, SHFE aluminum increased by 0.92%, and SHFE zinc rose by 0.74%. Additionally, alumina rose by 0.83%. In the ferrous metals series, most prices rose overnight. Iron ore increased by 0.77%, stainless steel remained flat at 12,390 yuan/mt, rebar rose by 0.83%, and HRC increased by 0.58%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 0.98%, and coke increased by 0.69%. LME metals mostly rose overnight. LME copper increased by 0.21%, LME zinc rose by 1.28%, LME tin fell by 1.06%, LME lead increased by 0.7%, LME aluminum rose by 0.59%, and LME nickel increased by 0.74%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold fell by 1.24%, while COMEX silver rose by 2.93%. SHFE gold decreased by 0.5%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.07%. As of 8:17 AM on April 8, the overnight closing prices are as follows. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council recently issued the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power (2024-2035)", outlining nine major tasks including comprehensively strengthening the foundation of food security, advancing agricultural technology and equipment innovation across all fields, and improving the modern agricultural management system in all aspects. The plan emphasizes promoting integrated urban-rural development, coordinating new-type industrialization, new-type urbanization, and comprehensive rural revitalization, and enhancing the integration level of urban and rural planning, construction, and governance. It also aims to improve the institutional mechanisms and policy systems for urban-rural integration, promote equal exchange and two-way flow of urban and rural elements, and push for balanced allocation of public resources. The plan includes measures to increase the proportion of land transfer income used for agriculture and rural areas, establish a unified urban-rural construction land market, and ensure that no less than 10% of the newly compiled county-level territorial space planning land use indicators are allocated for agriculture and rural areas. It also focuses on improving the supporting policy system for the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations, implementing a system where basic public services are provided based on permanent residence registration, and ensuring that eligible agricultural transfer populations enjoy the same rights as local residents in terms of social insurance, housing security, and compulsory education for their children. The plan highlights the importance of counties as key points for urban-rural integration, promoting the connection of urban and rural transportation roads, the interconnection of power supply networks, and the integration of passenger and freight logistics, as well as standardizing basic public services and systems across urban and rural areas. It also emphasizes strengthening the county-level commercial system and tapping into rural consumption potential. Click for details. The SHFE issued a notice stating that due to the complex and volatile international situation and significant market fluctuations, all relevant units should strengthen risk prevention, invest rationally, and jointly maintain stable market operations. Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Reform Holdings announced their increased holdings of Chinese stock assets. Central Huijin stated on April 7 during A-share trading that it firmly believes in the development prospects of China's capital market and fully recognizes the current value of A-share allocation. It has once again increased its holdings of ETFs and will continue to do so, resolutely maintaining stable capital market operations. China Chengtong announced its increased holdings of Chinese stock assets, with its subsidiaries Chengtong Financial Holdings and Chengyang Investment increasing their holdings of ETFs and central state-owned enterprise stocks. It will further leverage the functions of state-owned capital operation companies to continue large-scale purchases of central and state-owned enterprise stocks and technology innovation stocks. China Reform Holdings also expressed its firm belief in the development prospects of China's capital market and its commitment to being a long-term, patient, and strategic capital. Its subsidiary, China Reform Investment Co., Ltd., increased its holdings of central state-owned enterprise stocks, technology innovation stocks, and ETFs. On the US dollar front, the US dollar index rose by 0.61% overnight to 103.51. Following concerns about a global economic recession triggered by US tariffs, some investors turned to the dollar as a safe haven. Global stock markets were hit again on Monday, although the benchmark S&P 500 index moved well off its lows in volatile trading. The market is betting on the increasing risk of a deep economic recession, which could lead to a US interest rate cut as early as May, thereby weakening the dollar's yield advantage. The FedWatch Tool shows that the Fed will cut rates by about 120 basis points by December, with the market estimating a 37% chance of a US rate cut in May. In other currencies, the money market increased its bets on a European Central Bank rate cut, as a stock market crash raised the likelihood of a recession. Traders expect the ECB to cut rates by 88 basis points this year, favoring four rate cuts. German government bond gains widened, with the 2-year yield falling by 20 basis points to 1.63%. The Japanese government and the ruling coalition are considering drafting a supplementary budget to address US tariffs and long-term inflation. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may instruct officials to draft the budget this month and aim to pass it during the current parliamentary session. The Japanese government is considering measures to stimulate domestic demand following the US imposition of auto tariffs. It may strengthen financial support for companies that do not lay off workers. In terms of price relief measures, the Japanese government is considering reinstating electricity and natural gas subsidies. Japan may also replenish its reserve funds. In data, France's February trade balance, Canada's March IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI, and Canada's March IVEY unadjusted PMI will be released today. In the crude oil sector, both oil futures fell overnight, with US oil down by 1.66% and Brent oil down by 1.86%. Oil prices hit a nearly four-year low as concerns that US trade tariffs could push the global economy into recession and reduce global energy demand. Imports of oil, natural gas, and refined products are exempt from the new tariffs, but the tariff policy could stimulate inflation, slow economic growth, and exacerbate trade disputes, putting pressure on oil prices. Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% chance of a US economic recession in the next 12 months and has lowered its oil price forecast. Goldman Sachs reduced its 2026 Brent crude average price forecast by $4 to $58 per barrel and lowered its US crude average price forecast to $55. The bank also cut its December 2025 Brent and US crude futures price forecasts by $4 to $62 and $58 per barrel, respectively. Citi, JPMorgan, and Bank of America also lowered their Brent forecasts. A survey showed that OPEC's oil production in March fell before the planned production increase, as Nigeria reduced supplies to domestic refineries, and Iran and Venezuela also saw supply declines. Monday's survey showed that OPEC's daily production last month was 26.63 million barrels, down by 110,000 barrels from February, with Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela seeing the largest daily production declines. Saudi Aramco's pricing documents showed that it reduced the price of other grades of crude oil sold to Asia in May by $2.30 per barrel and lowered the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil in May by $2.30 to $1.20 per barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai crude.

SMM

Oil prices hit a nearly four-year low, metals generally rose, LME zinc surged over 1%, New York silver rose nearly 3%, and SHFE copper fell over 2% [Overnight Market].

On April 7, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,908 mt, with the Kaohsiung warehouse showing the largest change.

Metals mostly rose, with LME copper hitting its lowest in over 16 months during the session, as recession concerns intensified [LME closing on April 7].