During the Qingming holiday, major events in the financial markets piled up. The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced a 34% tariff hike on all imports originating from the US. US job additions in March far exceeded expectations, but the impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to emerge soon. Powell stated that the scale of tariffs is larger than expected, potentially stimulating inflation and slowing growth, and it remains uncertain how to respond. OPEC advanced its production increase plan, with a more significant production boost in May.
The US reciprocal tariff policy triggered a massive shock in global financial markets. Wall Street stocks in the US plummeted for two consecutive days, with the Nasdaq confirming a bear market and the Dow Jones Industrial Average entering correction territory. European stocks plunged, with the benchmark STOXX 600 and Germany's DAX indices confirming corrections. Japanese stocks fell to their lowest since August last year, with a weekly decline of 9%, the largest weekly drop in five years. The US dollar index fell to a six-month low as investors weighed the impact of US tariffs on global trade and the economy.
In commodities, affected by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, oil prices hit a new low in over three years. LME copper hit an eight-month low, as the US comprehensive tariff plan sparked fears of an economic recession. CBOT soybeans touched the year's lowest, impacted by comprehensive tariffs. Gold failed to stay immune, with investors selling gold to cover losses from the stock market crash. ICE cotton fell to a four-year low, pressured by export concerns. The CRB index, tracking global commodities, fell over 3% on Thursday and another 5% on Friday, with a weekly cumulative drop of 6%.
**US Stocks Continue to Plunge**
As reciprocal tariffs continued to ferment, US stocks plunged for two consecutive trading days during the Qingming holiday. US benchmark indices plummeted on Thursday, marking the largest single-day percentage drop in years, as the US comprehensive tariff policy sparked fears of a full-blown trade war and a global economic recession. The Dow fell 3.98%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.84%, and the Nasdaq plunged 5.97%.
S&P 500 component stocks lost a combined $2.4 trillion in market value, with the index recording its largest single-day percentage drop since June 2020. The Dow also saw its largest single-day drop since June 2020, while the Nasdaq marked its largest single-day decline since March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic sent global markets into a slump.
Wall Street stocks fell for the second consecutive day on Friday, with the Nasdaq confirming a bear market and the Dow entering correction territory, as the escalation of the global trade war triggered the largest sell-off since the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 fell 5.97%, the Nasdaq dropped 5.82%, and the Dow plunged 5.5%. Over Thursday and Friday, the Dow fell 9.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 10.5%, and the Nasdaq declined 11.4%.
**US Dollar Index Hits Six-Month Low**
The US dollar index hit a six-month low during the Qingming holiday, with reciprocal tariffs causing significant volatility. On Thursday, the dollar plunged 1.9%, its worst performance since November 2022. The harsher-than-expected tariffs shocked the market, with global stocks falling and investors flocking to safer assets such as low-risk currencies, bonds, and gold, fearing that a full-blown trade dispute could trigger a sharp global economic slowdown and exacerbate inflation. The dollar rebounded nearly 1% on Friday after Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged that the impact of US tariffs was larger than expected and struck a cautious tone on future policy easing. The dollar showed little reaction to US data overall, with US service sector activity slowing to a nine-month low in March due to tariff-induced uncertainty. US non-farm payrolls added 228,000 in March, far exceeding the expected 135,000, while February's increase was revised down to 117,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
**Gold Fails to Stay Immune**
As reciprocal tariffs continued to impact the market, commodities plunged across the board, and gold failed to stay immune, falling for two consecutive days as the intensifying trade war sparked fears of a global economic recession, with investors selling gold to cover losses from the broader market crash. Fed Chairman Powell stated on Friday that the scale of the new US tariffs is "larger than expected," and the economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing growth, could also be greater. He also warned that it is too early to know what the right response from the Fed should be. The US economy added far more jobs than expected in March, but comprehensive import tariffs could weaken the resilience of the labour market in the coming months amid declining business confidence and stock market sell-offs. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls added 228,000 in March, compared to an expected 135,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Average hourly wages rose 0.3% MoM and 3.8% YoY. After the jobs report, the market expects the Fed to wait until June to start cutting interest rates. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of April 1, speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold futures and options by 16,134 contracts to 176,553. During the week, speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX silver futures and options by 4,356 contracts to 41,449.
**CBOT Soybeans Hit Year's Lowest**
CBOT soybeans hit the year's lowest during the Qingming holiday. On April 4, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced a 34% tariff hike on all imports originating from the US. The most-traded soybean contract fell below the $10 mark, hitting its lowest since December 19.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) export sales report released on Thursday showed that for the week ending March 27, US soybean export sales for the current market year increased by 410,200 mt, up 21% from the previous week but down 9% from the four-week average. Market estimates were for an increase of 250,000-800,000 mt. Among them, exports to mainland China increased by 208,700 mt.
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday showed that large speculators increased their net short positions in CBOT corn and wheat futures and options last week while reducing their net short positions in soybean futures and options. As of April 1, large speculators reduced their net short positions in CBOT soybean futures and options by 12,322 contracts to 42,140.
**Oil Prices Hit Three-Year Low**
Affected by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, oil prices continued to plunge during the Qingming holiday. On Thursday, oil prices fell over 6%, marking the largest drop in three years, and on Friday, they fell 7%, hitting a new low in over three years. Oil prices fell sharply on Thursday, marking the largest single-day drop since 2022, a day after the US announced comprehensive new import tariffs, as OPEC unexpectedly agreed to increase production.
Brent crude futures fell $4.81, or 6.42%, on Thursday. US crude futures fell $4.76, or 6.64%. Brent crude was set to record its largest drop since August 1, 2022, while US crude was set to record its largest drop since July 11, 2022.
Eight OPEC countries agreed on Thursday to advance their oil production increase plan, with oil production in May increasing by 411,000 barrels per day, higher than the originally planned 135,000 barrels per day. This unexpected decision extended the already steep decline in oil prices.
Oil prices fell 7% on Friday, hitting the lowest closing level in over three years, as the global trade war escalated sharply, with investors fearing an economic recession. Brent crude futures fell $4.56, or 6.5%, settling at $65.58 per barrel; US crude futures fell $4.96, or 7.4%, settling at $61.99. Earlier in the session, Brent crude futures hit a low of $64.03, and US crude futures hit a low of $60.45, both four-year lows. In percentage terms, Brent crude recorded its largest weekly drop in a year and a half, while US crude recorded its largest weekly drop in two years.
**LME Copper Hits Eight-Month Low**
As the US comprehensive tariff plan sparked fears of an economic recession, base metals saw a massive sell-off during the Qingming holiday. LME three-month copper fell 3.3% on Thursday, after hitting a low of $9,353, the lowest since March 4. On Friday, it fell 6.4%, earlier hitting a low of $8,734, the lowest since August 8. In the past 15 years, copper has only seen larger daily drops in March 2020 and during the European debt crisis in October 2011. Aluminum hit a seven-month low, falling for the 12th consecutive trading day. Nickel hit a low of $14,595, the lowest since October 2020. Zinc hit an eight-month low, while lead hit its lowest since October 2022.
As tariff hikes hit global growth expectations, copper consumption prospects, and risk appetite, Citi expects copper prices to pull back to $8,500 by Q3. BNP Paribas believes copper prices will fall to this level in Q2.
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of April 1, speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 2,352 contracts to 31,274.
**Powell Says Tariff Scale Larger Than Expected May Stimulate Inflation and Slow Growth, Uncertain How to Respond**
Fed Chairman Powell stated on Friday that the scale of Trump's new tariffs is "larger than expected," and the economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing growth, could also be greater. He also warned that it is too early to know what the right response from the Fed should be. "We face a highly uncertain outlook, with risks of rising unemployment and inflation," he said, adding that the Fed has time to wait for more data before deciding how monetary policy should respond.
**US Job Additions Far Exceed Expectations in March, but Trump Tariff Impact Expected to Emerge Soon**
The US economy added far more jobs than expected in March, but comprehensive import tariffs could weaken the resilience of the labour market in the coming months amid declining business confidence and stock market sell-offs. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls added 228,000 in March, compared to an expected 135,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Average hourly wages rose 0.3% MoM and 3.8% YoY. After the jobs report, the market expects the Fed to wait until June to start cutting interest rates.
**OPEC Advances Production Increase Plan, May Output to See Larger Boost**
Eight OPEC countries agreed on Thursday to advance their oil production increase plan, with oil production in May increasing by 411,000 barrels per day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a statement: "This includes the originally planned May increase, as well as a two-month increase."
This week, attention remains on US and China data, with the Fed releasing meeting minutes on Wednesday. On Thursday, China will release March CPI and PPI data, while US March CPI will also be released. On Thursday, the agricultural market will see the USDA's April supply and demand report. On Friday, the US will release March PPI data.
