The US dollar closed lower on a weekly basis, with metals in the overseas market declining across the board. LME copper, LME nickel, and LME tin, along with silver, plummeted, while US stocks plunged. [Holiday Market Review]

SMM April 6 News: During the Qingming holiday, domestic futures, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks were closed, while the overseas market remained open. Due to the unexpected "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US, concerns over escalating global trade conflicts and a potential global economic recession led to a significant cooling of market risk appetite, triggering large-scale sell-offs. Copper, oil, US stocks, and precious metals experienced sharp declines. SMM summarized the market performance of the US dollar index, crude oil futures, precious metals, LME metals, and US stocks during the Qingming holiday as follows: Metal Market: During the Qingming holiday, domestic base metals were closed. Notably, overseas base metals fell on both April 3 and April 4. Market participants should be alert to the high probability of domestic metal futures following the overseas market's decline on April 7 and enhance risk prevention. Ferrous metals were also closed during the Qingming holiday. LME metals all declined during the holiday. As of the overnight close on April 4, LME copper fell 6.86%, LME nickel dropped 6.81%, LME zinc decreased 1.39%, LME tin declined 5.42%, LME lead fell 2.05%, and LME aluminum dropped 2.89%. Overseas Precious Metals: As of the overnight close on April 4, COMEX gold fell 2.61%, with a weekly decline of 1.99%. COMEX silver dropped 7.52%, with a weekly decline of 15.21%. SHFE gold and silver were closed during the Qingming holiday. Macro Front: Domestic: [11 Arrows Fired! China Firmly Counters US "Reciprocal Tariffs," Imposes 34% Tariffs on US Imports Starting at 12:00 on April 10] On April 2, US time, the US announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners. China firmly opposes this and will take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests. On April 4, China issued a series of statements and announced countermeasures. On April 2, 2025, the US government announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese exports to the US. The US actions violate international trade rules, severely harm China's legitimate rights and interests, and are typical unilateral bullying practices. In accordance with the "Customs Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China," and other relevant laws and regulations, as well as the basic principles of international law, and with the approval of the State Council, China will impose additional tariffs on imports originating from the US starting at 12:01 on April 10, 2025. The relevant matters are as follows: 1. An additional 34% tariff will be imposed on all imports originating from the US, based on the current applicable tariff rates. 2. The current bonded and duty-free policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs will not be exempted. 3. For goods that have already departed from the place of shipment before 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and are imported between 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and 24:00 on May 13, 2025, the additional tariffs specified in this announcement will not be imposed. [Two Departments: Export Controls on Certain Medium-Heavy Rare Earth-Related Items] On April 4, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on the implementation of export controls on certain medium-heavy rare earth-related items. In accordance with the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Customs Law of the People's Republic of China," and the "Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China," and to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations, with the approval of the State Council, it has been decided to implement export control measures on seven categories of medium-heavy rare earth-related items, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. The measures will take effect from the date of issuance. US Dollar: US tariffs have sparked concerns about an economic recession, leading to a sharp decline in the US dollar. The US dollar index fell significantly on April 3, hitting a low of 101.26%. As of the overnight close on April 4, the US dollar index rose 0.9% to 102.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks, with a decline of 1.1% this week. Earlier, Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged that the impact of US tariffs was greater than expected and expressed a cautious tone regarding future policy easing. Powell stated that tariffs increase the risks of rising inflation and slowing growth, highlighting the challenges faced by Fed policymakers. Before Powell's remarks, data released earlier showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, far exceeding the expected 135,000, while the February figure was revised down to 117,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. The market predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates four times in the remainder of the year. Next week, the closely watched CPI indicator will show the impact of goods and service prices on consumers. Other Currencies: UBS released a report stating that European economic growth will also slow, although the slowdown will be less severe than in the US. If tariffs remain at current levels throughout the summer, economic growth could be reduced by 50-100 basis points compared to a scenario without tariffs. As for inflation, EU retaliatory tariffs may lead to short-term price pressures, but we believe the medium-term impact of a trade war could suppress European inflation. Combined with weak economic growth, the European Central Bank may cut interest rates to below our previous expectation of 2% by June. Data: Next week, data to be released includes Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for February, the UK's Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index for March, the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for April, the Eurozone's retail sales for February, Japan's trade balance for February, France's trade balance for February, the US NFIB small business optimism index for March, China's CPI for March, the US unadjusted CPI for March, the US seasonally adjusted CPI for March, the US seasonally adjusted core CPI for March, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, China's M2 money supply for March, Germany's final CPI for March, the UK's three-month GDP for February, the UK's seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for February, the US PPI for March, the US PPI for March, the US one-year inflation rate expectation for April, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April. Additionally, next week, it is worth noting that San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr will hold a monetary policy press conference; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will deliver a speech; the Fed will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will deliver a speech; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at the New York Economic Club; European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak at a Eurogroup press conference; and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both oil futures fell on April 3 and April 4. As of the overnight close on April 4, US oil fell 6.47%, and Brent crude dropped 5.37%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures fell 9.73%, while Brent crude fell 8.93%. April 4 marked the second day of financial market sell-offs triggered by US tariff policies. Although oil, natural gas, and refined product imports were not included in the new US tariffs, the tariff policies could lead to inflation, slow economic growth, and exacerbate trade disputes, thereby putting pressure on oil prices. The OPEC+ alliance decided to proceed with its production increase plan, further pressuring oil prices. The alliance currently aims to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 barrels per day. Goldman Sachs analysts significantly lowered their December 2025 price targets for Brent and US crude by $5, to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively. Daan Struyven, the bank's head of oil research, stated in a report: "Given the increasing risk of an economic recession and the relatively small increase in OPEC+ supply, the risk to our oil price forecast is skewed to the downside, especially in 2026." HSBC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1 million barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day, citing tariffs and OPEC+ decisions. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM

The US dollar closed lower on a weekly basis, with metals in the overseas market declining across the board. LME copper, LME nickel, and LME tin, along with silver, plummeted, while US stocks plunged. [Holiday Market Review]

Base metals experienced a comprehensive decline, with copper futures dropping by over 6% at the LME closing on April 4.

Zambia's copper production may increase to nearly 1 million mt by 2025.