SMM

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Myanmar's Sudden 7.9-Magnitude Earthquake Sparks Supply Panic, SHFE Tin Prices Expected to Maintain High Fluctuating Trend. Recently, the domestic and overseas tin market has shown a sideways movement, primarily influenced by macro policies and supply-side disruptions. The US Fed maintains a "moderately restrictive" monetary policy, with fluctuations in the US dollar index exerting some pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. The escalation of armed conflict in the DRC has led Alphamin to suspend operations at its Bisie mine, exacerbating the tight global tin ore supply. Meanwhile, the delayed resumption of production in Myanmar has further reduced domestic tin ore imports. Additionally, the 7.9-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar over the weekend has intensified market panic over tin ore supply. In terms of supply, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have started to pull back, constrained by tight raw material supply, resulting in a generally tight supply-demand pattern. On the demand side, downstream solder companies mainly engage in just-in-time procurement, with high prices dampening restocking intentions. However, the trade-in policy and high production schedules for home appliances provide potential support for demand. Looking ahead, SHFE tin prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 280,000-289,000 yuan/mt in the short term. Investors should closely monitor developments in the DRC, the resumption of production in Wa State, and macro policy directions, exercising caution to avoid chasing high risks.