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SMM March 28 news:
The latest customs data shows that China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports from January to February 2025 totaled 436,600 mt, down 11.89% YoY. Among them, China exported 239,400 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip in January, down 9.12% MoM and 12.04% YoY; in February, exports were 197,200 mt, down 17.63% MoM and 8.87% YoY. The significant YoY decline was mainly due to the "rush to export" in November 2024, after which overseas end-users accumulated large inventories, partially depleting demand for Q1 2025 in advance.
By country, the export destinations for aluminum plate/sheet and strip from January to February 2025 remained relatively stable, with Mexico, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand leading the way. The combined exports to these four countries totaled 157,600 mt, accounting for about 36.1% of total aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports. Notably, the average export price of China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip in February was $3,444/mt, up $161/mt MoM. Historical data shows that the average LME spot settlement price in February was $2,575/mt, up $78/mt MoM, resulting in an average increase of $83/mt in processing fees. Although processing fees have risen, according to SMM, domestic export enterprises are still negotiating the extent of the price increase with overseas customers, and the final price adjustment plan has not yet been finalized.
By province, the overall pattern saw little change. Henan and Shandong regions still dominated, accounting for over 45% of exports from January to February, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang were the main export hubs for aluminum plate/sheet and strip. Exports from other provinces showed varying degrees of decline.
Overall, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports from January to February 2025 showed a trend of declining volume and rising prices. Affected by the "rush to export" in November 2024, which depleted demand, overseas customers' high inventories led to delayed orders in Q1. As overseas inventories gradually deplete, export demand may marginally improve in March, but the overall Q1 will still be constrained by the earlier demand depletion, with limited rebound potential. On the other hand, domestic aluminum plate/sheet and strip export enterprises have not yet fully finalized price increase negotiations with overseas customers, leaving profit margins uncertain. If the processing fee increase is ultimately implemented, it may boost export profits, but in the context of a slow overseas economic recovery and gradually released unused capacity, the potential for high prices to suppress orders also needs to be monitored.
