SMM March 27 News:
Raw material side, in the petroleum coke market, refinery shipments were differentiated during the week. The low-sulphur petroleum coke market was supported by increased purchasing enthusiasm from the negative electrode material market, leading to a slight price increase. However, the high-sulphur petroleum coke market saw insufficient support due to downstream companies only conducting necessary restocking and a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in a stable downward trend. Specifically, CNOOC's refineries slightly raised their tender prices for petroleum coke WoW, with adjustments ranging from 50-190 yuan/mt, and the current ex-factory prices are 3,850-4,070 yuan/mt. PetroChina's petroleum coke prices in north-east China stopped falling and rose this week, with increases ranging from 50-150 yuan/mt, and the current ex-factory prices are 3,950-4,450 yuan/mt. Local refineries' shipments were average, with downstream companies mainly maintaining rigid demand for restocking, and the overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Petroleum coke prices were stable with a downward trend, and the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries was about 2,473 yuan/mt, down 0.7% WoW. In the coal tar pitch market, prices continued to weaken this week, and as of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,487 yuan/mt, down 1.14% from last Thursday. Overall, the decline in petroleum coke and coal tar pitch prices has weakened the cost support for prebaked anodes.
Supply side, prebaked anode companies produce according to orders throughout the year, and overall production remains stable. Demand side, the operating capacity of the domestic aluminum industry maintained a stable and slight increase, and most of the previously resumed companies have returned to full production, with limited overall growth, but it has brought a positive boost to the market demand for prebaked anodes.
Brief comment: Petroleum coke prices were slightly differentiated during the week, but overall remained at high levels, while coal tar pitch prices continued to weaken, and the support from the raw material side for prebaked anodes has loosened. According to SMM data, as of March 27, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was about 5,368 yuan/mt, down 1.59% from last Thursday. According to SMM, the raw material inventory of prebaked anode companies has decreased, and most maintain 7-20 days of inventory for rigid demand restocking. As it is month-end, the market is waiting for the tender prices of benchmark companies next month, and purchasing enthusiasm is relatively average, providing insufficient support for petroleum coke prices. The overall raw material side will continue to maintain a weakening trend. Based on the fluctuations in the raw material market in the previous pricing cycle, SMM's calculations and surveys predict that prices will continue to rise next month, with increases around 200-300 yuan/mt.
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