SMM March 27 News:
Price Review:
As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 3,127 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt WoW. Among them, Shandong reported 3,060-3,120 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; Henan reported 3,090-3,190 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi reported 3,040-3,120 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi reported 3,140-3,200 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt WoW; Guizhou reported 3,190-3,250 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt WoW; Bayuquan reported 3,510-3,590 yuan/mt.
Overseas Market:
As of March 27, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $400/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.4/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.28, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 3,547 yuan/mt, 420 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed. This week, overseas spot alumina transactions were moderate, with three new overseas spot alumina transactions recorded:
1) On March 21, 25,000 mt of overseas alumina was traded at $395/mt FOB Go Dau, Vietnam, with shipment scheduled for late April to early May;
2) On March 26, 30,000 mt of overseas alumina was traded at $368/mt FOB Gladstone, Australia, with shipment scheduled for early May;
3) On March 27, 20,000 mt of overseas alumina was traded at $413/mt FOB Brazil, with shipment scheduled for late April to early May.
Based on the latest transaction price in Eastern Australia, the domestic mainstream port selling price is around 3,300 yuan/mt, less than 200 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina price index. If overseas alumina prices further decrease and the rate of decrease exceeds that of the domestic market, the alumina import window may gradually open.
Domestic Market:
According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the total metallurgical-grade alumina capacity in China was 105.02 million mt, with an operating capacity of 87.3 million mt. The national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.67 percentage points WoW to 83.13%. Among them, the alumina operating rate in Shandong increased by 1.22 percentage points WoW to 92.35%; in Shanxi, it decreased by 2.06 percentage points WoW to 72.6%; in Henan, it decreased by 3.87 percentage points WoW to 63.75%; in Guangxi, it increased by 3.03 percentage points WoW to 94.31%. During the period, spot alumina transactions were sluggish. Aluminum plants in Xinjiang tendered for partial alumina procurement, with delivery-to-factory prices around 3,350-3,370 yuan/mt; in Shanxi, 5,000 mt of spot alumina was traded at 3,050 yuan/mt. The transaction price center continued to move downward.
Overall:
This week, the alumina operating rate decreased again, with the national total operating capacity of metallurgical alumina dropping to 87.3 million mt/year, a weekly operating capacity decrease of 700,000 mt/year WoW, but the overall supply surplus in the alumina market has not yet reversed. According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the total operating capacity of domestic aluminum was 43.88 million mt/year, translating to an alumina demand operating capacity of around 84.47 million mt/year, with theoretical demand increasing slightly but still below actual operations. Meanwhile, downstream aluminum plants reported that alumina procurement is mainly based on long-term contracts, and some plants that have completed winter stockpiling plan to actively reduce inventory. According to SMM statistics, alumina raw material inventory at aluminum plants decreased by 44,000 mt WoW, and actual consumption during the period may be lower than theoretical. In the short term, alumina supply is expected to remain relatively loose, and alumina prices may continue to face downward pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in alumina operating capacity.
