Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,039/mt. After opening, LME lead fluctuated upward throughout the day, continuing to recover from the losses at the beginning of the week. Especially during the night session, as the US dollar index declined, LME lead surged strongly, reaching a high of $2,085/mt during the session. By the close, LME lead finally settled at $2,082/mt, up 2.26%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at 17,565 yuan/mt. The domestic consumption off-season and the imbalance between supply-side production cuts coexisted, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the futures market. SHFE lead mostly fluctuated between 17,500-17,550 yuan/mt. By the close, driven by the rise in LME lead, SHFE lead once surged to 17,670 yuan/mt and finally settled at 17,660 yuan/mt, up 0.74%. Its open interest stood at 60,709 lots, down 323 lots from the previous trading day.
Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotations.
Macro Aspect: According to related reports, Trump is considering a "two-step" tariff plan. Before "April 2," the UK and India are considering reducing taxes on the US to "please" Trump. Trump may impose a 25% tariff on copper, driving New York copper prices to a record high. Additionally, the US Conference Board's consumer expectations hit a 12-year low, with consumer confidence falling for four consecutive months, and short-term inflation expectations soaring to 6.2%.
In the lead spot market yesterday, SHFE lead hovered at highs, with suppliers offering limited quotations and relatively firm prices. Meanwhile, ex-factory cargoes from primary lead smelters saw a reduction in premiums (against the SMM 1# lead average price), quoted at premiums of 0-150 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Due to cost factors, secondary lead smelters narrowed their discounts, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 150-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with some waiting for the start of long-term contracts next month and others purchasing as needed, with transactions leaning towards relatively low-priced lead ingots. In the trade market, primary lead quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were at parity against the SHFE lead 2504 contract.
Inventory Aspect: As of March 25, LME lead inventory increased by 275 mt to 231,975 mt; SHFE lead warrant inventory stood at 60,202 mt, down 500 mt from the previous day.
Click to view SMM metal industry chain database.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
March-April, the lead-acid battery market is about to enter the traditional consumption off-season, with widespread concerns about subsequent lead demand. Meanwhile, provinces and cities continue to promote e-bike and car "trade-in" subsidy activities, focusing on their offsetting effect on the consumption off-season. Currently, primary lead smelters are cutting production and undergoing maintenance, leading to a phased reduction in supply and relatively tight market circulation of goods. On the secondary lead side, due to the tendency of scrap battery prices to rise rather than fall, smelting profits have shrunk, and smelters' production enthusiasm has declined, which may support lead prices to hover at highs in the short term.
