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Since May 2024, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper significantly widened, leading to changes in the global trade flow of copper cathode. In 2025, due to expectations of Trump's tariffs, large traders globally shipped all deliverable sources to the US, reducing the amount of imported copper cathode that would have come to China.
In January 2025, China's imports from Chile and Peru decreased 54.60% and 36.91% YoY; in February 2025, they decreased 45.63% and 64.28% YoY. The reduction in imports from these two countries was greater than the overall decrease in total imports. Notably, the proportion of non-registered imports in total imports continued to rise significantly, reaching nearly 70% in both January and February.
Despite the overall decrease in total imports in January-February 2025, imports from the DRC increased 19.02% YoY in January and 4.64% YoY in February. After the Chinese New Year, as copper prices surged, such non-registered sources were snapped up at lower prices in the Chinese market, narrowing the price difference with registered copper.
Looking ahead, by March 19, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper had risen by over $1,400/mt, and the US continues to siphon off global copper cathode. It is expected that the volume of registered imported copper coming to China will continue to decrease YoY, and total imports will also decline, with the share of non-registered imports further increasing.
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