Metals Show Mixed Performance; Alumina Hits Over 1-Year Low Again; SHFE Gold Reaches New Historical High; Coking Coal and Coke Drop Over 2% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM March 19 News: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic base metals mostly rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc declining together. SHFE aluminum fell 0.62%, and SHFE zinc dropped 0.19%. SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.71% increase, while other metals posted gains below 0.7%. The main alumina contract fell 2.87%, hitting an intraday low of 3,002 yuan/mt, marking a new low since December 2023. Additionally, the main silicon metal contract dropped 1.66%, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.45%, and the main lithium carbonate contract fell 0.77%. The main European line shipping contract plunged 8.1%. 》Silicon Metal Futures Fall Below 10,000 Yuan Mark: Key Points to Watch Amid Strong Supply and Weak Demand! 【SMM Flash News】Ferrous metals series saw collective declines, with iron ore down 2.12%, marking a three-day losing streak; rebar fell 1.19%, while HRC and stainless steel posted declines of less than 1%. Coking coal and coke both dropped over 2%, with coking coal down 2.98% and coke down 2.68%. Precious metals: As of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 0.28%, while COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.41%, hitting an intraday high of 708.48 yuan/gram, continuing to refresh its historical high; SHFE silver rose 0.49%. As of 15:03 Today 》Click to View SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: The central bank conducted 295.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with a winning rate of 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 175.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 120.5 billion yuan was achieved. 【Henan Issues "Financial 20 Measures" to Fully Boost Consumption】 The Henan Regulatory Bureau of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the Provincial Financial Office, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and the Provincial Department of Commerce, recently jointly issued the "Notice on Financial Support for Expanding Consumption," proposing 20 specific measures to encourage financial institutions to actively connect with government departments at all levels, strengthen the coordination of various consumption-promoting policies and financial products, and fully support consumption-boosting actions. The "Financial 20 Measures" cover multiple livelihood areas such as automobiles, housing, domestic services, culture and tourism, and agricultural supplies. In terms of automobiles and housing, the policy encourages financial institutions to reasonably optimize auto loan businesses, appropriately waive penalties for early loan repayment, enrich the supply of auto financial products, and effectively reduce auto insurance premiums. At the same time, it actively supports rigid and improved housing consumption financing needs for young people, implements differentiated housing credit policies, leverages the role of the real estate financing coordination mechanism, and helps stabilize the real estate market. ► On March 19, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1697 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose 0.2%. In February, US single-family housing construction rebounded sharply, and industrial production surged, but tariffs led to higher raw material prices, threatening the nascent recovery in the housing market and manufacturing sector. Single-family housing starts, which account for the majority of housing construction, surged 11.4% MoM in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.108 million units. US industrial production rose 0.7% MoM in February, exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% increase, following a 0.5% rise in January. The US import price index rose 0.4% MoM in February, marking the largest increase since April 2024, compared to market expectations of a 0.1% decline and a 0.3% rise in January. The US Fed is expected to conclude its two-day policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on March 20 (Thursday), with an announcement anticipated to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%. Market participants await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech following the rate decision for clues on the Fed's monetary policy direction. (Compiled by Wenhua) Data: Today, the Eurozone's February core harmonized CPI YoY final value (non-seasonally adjusted), Japan's February seasonally adjusted trade balance, Japan's February non-seasonally adjusted exports, and the Bank of Japan's March 19 policy benchmark interest rate will be released. Additionally, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI crude down 0.75% and Brent crude down 0.71%. The US proposed a halt to energy facility attacks between Russia and Ukraine, potentially boosting Russian oil exports. Geopolitically, according to CCTV News, the new US administration proposed that Russia and Ukraine simultaneously cease attacks on each other's energy infrastructure within 30 days, with Putin expressing support. Following this news, geopolitical risk premiums in the crude oil market briefly retreated, causing domestic and overseas crude oil prices to face resistance after a short rebound and subsequently turn downward. As one of the world's largest oil suppliers, Russia's oil exports remain near a four-month high. Data shows that over the four weeks ending March 16, Russia's crude oil exports from all ports remained stable, with a daily average of 3.37 million barrels, close to the peak level since November 10 last year. If Russia and Ukraine can simultaneously cease attacks on each other's energy infrastructure within 30 days, or if the new US administration subsequently eases sanctions on Russian oil exports, Russia's crude oil and high-sulfur fuel oil exports are expected to increase further. The global crude oil supply growth trend is clear, but demand outlook uncertainties persist. Although Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the global oil market is currently balanced and that OPEC+'s planned 100,000 barrels/day production increase in April will not impact the oil market, the latest monthly reports from the IEA, EIA, and OPEC indicate that the global crude oil supply growth trend is almost certain. However, the three organizations still have differing views on demand expectations. Specifically, the IEA lowered its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels/day to 1.03 million barrels/day, mainly due to concerns that escalating trade tensions could hinder global economic recovery. The EIA is more optimistic, raising its global crude oil demand growth forecast to 1.37 million barrels/day and projecting further growth to 1.61 million barrels/day in 2026. The EIA also predicts that US crude oil and refined product consumption will reach 20.5 million barrels/day in 2025, nearing historical peak levels. However, the EIA also noted that US tariff policies on Canada and Mexico could constrain oil demand. Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its relatively optimistic forecast of 1.45 million barrels/day global crude oil demand growth, continuing to emphasize the consumption resilience of emerging Asian economies. (Compiled by Wenhua) SMM Daily Review ► Aluminum Scrap Follows Decline Significantly, Market Transactions Remain Unimproved 【Aluminum Scrap Daily Review】 ► Aluminum Prices Extend Decline, Secondary Aluminum Prices Mainly Drop 【ADC12 Price Daily Review】 ► March 19: SHFE Aluminum Bottoms Out and Rebounds, Aluminum Billet Processing Fees Surge 【Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review】 ► Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continues, Market Stalemate Persists 【SMM EMM Daily Review】 ► 【SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review】 March 19: Nickel Salt Smelter Inventory at Low Levels ► Downstream Demand Lacks Support, Spot Prices Drop Slightly 【SMM SiMn Alloy Daily Review】 ► 【SMM HRC Daily Review】 Supply-Demand Pattern Moderate, When Will Futures Stabilize? ► 【SMM Rebar Daily Review】 Construction Material Demand Mediocre, When Will Market Wait-and-See Sentiment End? ► Stainless Steel Market Prices Decline, Transactions Mediocre, Weak Rangebound Trend Ahead 【SMM Stainless Steel Spot Daily Review】 ► High-Grade NPI Market Sentiment Cools, Strong Support Below, Prices Relatively Stable with Strong Trend 【NPI Daily Review】 ► Tungsten Market Inquiries Increase, Tungsten Prices Stable in the Short Term 【SMM Tungsten Daily Review】 ► Rare Earth Prices Stabilize, Market Wait-and-See Sentiment Strong 【SMM Rare Earth Daily Review】

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Metals Show Mixed Performance; Alumina Hits Over 1-Year Low Again; SHFE Gold Reaches New Historical High; Coking Coal and Coke Drop Over 2% [SMM Daily Review]

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