Lithium Ore:
At the beginning of this week, lithium ore prices remained relatively stable WoW.
For spodumene, in terms of production, domestic spodumene output in February was basically flat MoM, affected by weather conditions, and remained at a low level. From the perspective of market sentiment, on one hand, the exchange rate of currencies in some African regions against the yuan has recently declined, leading to an increase in miners' sentiment to stand firm on quotes in these areas. On the other hand, with the continuous downward trend in domestic lithium chemical prices, the psychological price level of domestic buyers has decreased, resulting in mediocre buying sentiment.
For lepidolite, in terms of production, overall output increased, mainly due to the ramp-up of production at a leading mine. Regarding market sentiment, small and medium-sized lithium chemical suppliers still showed sentiment to stand firm on quotes, while buyers, affected by the significant losses caused by falling lithium chemical prices, exhibited relatively low purchase willingness for higher-priced materials.
Lithium Carbonate:
At the beginning of this week, the transaction price center of spot lithium carbonate continued to decline. From the current supply and demand perspective, both supply and demand are increasing, but the growth on the supply side is stronger, resulting in a continued surplus in lithium carbonate. Under this surplus situation, spot lithium carbonate prices still have some downside room. Considering the strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes among upstream lithium chemical plants, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.
Lithium Hydroxide:
At the beginning of this week, lithium hydroxide prices were basically flat WoW. In terms of production, February's output was at a recent low, mainly due to maintenance and holiday shutdowns by most lithium chemical enterprises during the Chinese New Year. From the perspective of market sentiment, as the recovery in demand fell short of expectations, upstream sentiment to stand firm on quotes weakened, and quotations were lowered. For downstream buyers, ternary cathode material plants maintained relatively stable purchases, with no significant demand for additional spot orders, leading to a mediocre market performance.
Lithium hydroxide prices are expected to continue a slight downward trend in the short term.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt prices continued to rise. On the supply side, the operating rate of mainstream refined cobalt smelters remained stable, ensuring sufficient market supply. On the demand side, downstream inquiries were active, and restocking willingness increased. From the market perspective, due to abundant market news, sentiment for price hikes was strong during the week. Meanwhile, some downstream buyers, concerned about excessive price increases in the future, showed stronger purchase willingness. Looking ahead, as the rapid price increase requires time for the market to digest, refined cobalt prices are expected to stabilize next week, with the market remaining in a wait-and-see mode.
Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices rose slightly. On the supply side, customs transportation remained smooth, and port arrivals were unaffected. On the demand side, concerns about potential price increases led to stronger inquiry willingness. From the market perspective, there was abundant market news during the week, and mainstream sellers mainly withheld offers. Next week, the overall market situation is expected to remain stable, with spot prices likely to continue rising.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt salt prices increased. On February 22, the DRC announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports to address the issue of market oversupply. This news had a strong impact on market sentiment, with upstream smelters generally suspending quotations, and some maintaining sentiment to stand firm on quotes. This provided short-term support for the cobalt salt market, driving prices upward. Next week, as market sentiment continues to ferment, sentiment to stand firm on quotes is expected to persist, and inquiry activities may increase, leading to a slight rise in spot prices. However, due to existing inventory in the market and lackluster actual demand, the momentum for sustained price increases is insufficient, and the rise will be limited. Additionally, cobalt raw material supply remains relatively sufficient, and the oversupply situation is unlikely to change in the short term, making further price increases less likely and potentially leading to a pullback.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices increased, mainly driven by the news of the DRC's suspension of cobalt exports. Smelters suspended quotations, and market sentiment turned cautious, providing stronger price support. Meanwhile, rising cobalt salt raw material prices further pushed up Co3O4 costs. Although spot prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, the existing inventory held by LCO producers and weak market demand may limit sustained price increases. As a result, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, and future price trends will depend on raw material supply conditions.
Nickel Sulphate:
On March 3, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,707 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,560-27,220 yuan/mt, and the average price increased WoW. In terms of costs, recent LME nickel prices fluctuated within the $15,300-15,900 range. Meanwhile, the DRC's decision to suspend cobalt exports led to a significant increase in cobalt prices, pushing up the MHP coefficient. Additionally, MHP sellers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and some traders stopped offering quotations. Nickel sulphate costs are expected to continue rising. On the demand side, last week, the significant increase in cobalt sulphate prices prompted precursor plants to suspend quotations for precursors, leading to cautious raw material procurement and slowing nickel salt purchasing pace at traditional procurement periods, despite high inventory demand. On the supply side, rising raw material procurement costs strengthened nickel salt producers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Overall, considering the existing demand and the cost-driven sentiment to stand firm on quotes among nickel salt producers, nickel salt prices are expected to rise further in the short term.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
This week, prices of 5-series consumer-grade, 6-series consumer-grade, and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors continued to rise significantly.
In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices rose slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices surged significantly due to the DRC's cobalt export ban. These changes drove varying degrees of price increases across precursor series.
On the demand side, the overall domestic and overseas precursor markets remained weak, further pressured by the ongoing competition from the LFP market against the ternary market. Overall demand in March is expected to remain mediocre. On the supply side, precursor producers continued price negotiations due to losses, with long-term contract signing conditions remaining unsatisfactory, prompting some producers to increase the proportion of spot orders.
The four-month cobalt export ban is expected to continue driving cobalt raw material prices upward in the short term. Looking ahead to this week, considering the sentiment to stand firm on quotes among precursor producers facing losses and the anticipated rise in sulphate prices, precursor prices are likely to increase further.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
Prices: At the beginning of this week, cobalt sulphate prices continued to rise significantly due to the DRC's export restrictions, with clear sentiment among sellers to raise prices.
Even with a slight decline in lithium chemical prices, the rise in cobalt sulphate prices still drove significant price increases for 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode materials.
Production and Supply: The recovery of orders for ternary cathode material producers in March varied. Orders for 6-series materials were relatively optimistic, while 5-series and 8-series materials might struggle to return to January levels. Meanwhile, overseas demand for ternary cathode materials showed limited growth compared to pre-holiday levels, maintaining a relatively stable demand level, leading to weak production schedule growth expectations for some producers mainly supplying overseas markets. Overall, driven by the recovery in terminal sales, ternary cathode material production increased by 12% MoM.
LFP: Lithium carbonate prices fell by about 800 yuan/mt this week. LFP processing fees remained stable overall, but some producers implemented price increases for processing fees, mainly for medium- and high-compaction products. It is expected that the processing fee component in SMM's LFP price will be adjusted soon. Regarding lithium carbonate discounts, negotiations have not been fully concluded. Downstream battery cell manufacturers still have a sentiment to lower discounts, and some producers have reduced customer-supplied lithium carbonate volumes, increasing the risk of potential losses for producers. Negotiations are ongoing. On the supply side, LFP producers maintained relatively stable operating rates this week, but some medium- and small-sized producers reduced or halted production, while leading producers maintained stable production. On the demand side, some downstream battery cell manufacturers slightly reduced procurement volumes in February, leading to minor adjustments in the supply chain structure and an overall increase in February inventory.
Iron Phosphate: The iron phosphate market remained relatively stable this week. In February, with a slightly weak supply-demand relationship, prices did not experience significant volatility. Since last week, industrial ammonium prices rose from 5,800 yuan/mt to 6,100 yuan/mt. Phosphorus chemical enterprises intentionally controlled shipments to push up prices. Currently, iron phosphate producers report difficulties in procuring industrial ammonium, while ferrous sulphate prices remained stable at high levels. Costs provided some support to prices, preventing significant declines. However, due to weakened downstream demand, there is insufficient room and momentum for further price increases.
LCO: LCO prices rose this week, with the latest prices for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V LCO at 135,000 yuan/mt, 139,000 yuan/mt, and 150,000 yuan/mt, respectively. On the raw material side, Co3O4 prices surged significantly due to the DRC cobalt ban, while battery-grade lithium carbonate prices declined, strengthening overall cost support. On the supply side, LCO production decreased by 5% MoM in February, but March production schedules are expected to rise. On the demand side, digital 3C orders remained stable, and the market held a bullish outlook on LCO prices. With further implementation of supportive policies, market demand is expected to continue recovering, and prices may stabilize.
Anode: Anode material prices showed an upward trend this week. On the cost side, due to the previous surge in petroleum coke prices, anode producers reduced procurement volumes, leading to a decline in downstream demand for petroleum coke. Meanwhile, as many refineries remained under maintenance, petroleum coke supply also decreased. Under the backdrop of weak supply and demand, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices remained stable at high levels this week. Needle coke prices, which had risen earlier due to multiple factors, stabilized this week due to weak demand and sufficient supply. Graphitisation outsourcing profits were close to the cost line due to high electricity costs during the dry season, creating upward pricing sentiment. However, the oversupply situation in graphitisation outsourcing was difficult to reverse, and prices remained stable with a weak trend this week. On the demand side, the market gradually recovered, and demand rebounded. On the supply side, despite the recovery in demand, the supply level of anode materials showed no significant increase due to rapidly rising costs. Looking ahead, under the backdrop of high raw material costs, anode material prices may further increase with market recovery.
Separator: Lithium battery separator prices remained stable this week. Previously, the separator industry was mired in a prolonged price war, significantly increasing survival pressure on separator producers, who showed a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. In terms of supply and demand, although the market is gradually recovering, downstream demand has not shown significant growth, and separator producers' operating rates have not significantly increased. Under the backdrop of weak supply and demand, downstream battery cell manufacturers stopped pressing prices to ensure supply chain stability, and separator prices remained stable this week. Looking ahead, as new separator capacity gradually reaches full production, the growth rate of downstream demand may struggle to match the pace of capacity expansion, and the oversupply situation may persist. Under such circumstances, fierce price wars may resurface as separator producers compete for a larger share of the limited market.
Electrolyte: Electrolyte prices remained stable this week. On the supply side, market activity resumed after the Chinese New Year holiday, with LiPF6 produced on demand and electrolyte producers shipping goods based on orders, keeping prices stable. On the demand side, battery cell manufacturers showed signs of recovering demand for electrolytes, procuring on demand. On the cost side, prices of LiPF6, additives, and solvents remained stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are mainly influenced by LiPF6 prices. However, due to price suppression from battery cell manufacturers, electrolyte prices remained stable. The prices of ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100 to 29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800 to 25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to oscillate within a certain range.
Sodium-Ion Battery: Recently, the cost of sodium-ion battery cathodes has shown room for reduction with the commissioning of new capacity and the start of mass production. However, the capacity of hard carbon anodes and electrolytes has not significantly increased, and prices remained stable in the short term. The sodium-ion battery market is currently dominated by layered oxide, but with the cost advantages of NFPP polyanion and the expansion of mass production, it is expected to gradually become the mainstream in the market.
Recycling: Prices of waste batteries for cascade utilization remained stable overall. On the supply side, battery cell production gradually recovered, and dealer activity increased, leading to a gradual recovery in the supply of waste battery cells for cascade utilization, though still below peak season levels. On the demand side, cascade utilization enterprises gradually resumed procurement of waste battery cells for cascade utilization. However, due to oversupply in the market, upstream enterprises showed a sentiment to stand firm on quotes after the holiday. Cascade utilization enterprises were cautious about purchasing high-priced battery cells, generally unwilling to buy at high prices and only making just-in-time procurement. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable, but market transaction volumes remain sluggish, with weak performance on both supply and demand sides. With the expected growth in battery cell production and retirement volumes in the future, increased supply may lead to further declines in the prices of waste battery cells for cascade utilization.
Supply Side: This week, with the continued rise in nickel salt and cobalt salt prices, prices of ternary and LCO black mass also continued to rise, with producers and dealers further raising their psychological price levels. However, the coefficients of ternary and LCO black mass showed little change WoW. For example, most enterprises still maintained a certain level of safety inventory for ternary pole piece black mass. Due to the long-term inversion of production costs and prices, enterprises showed cautious attitudes toward accepting high-priced black mass, and market transactions were mediocre. On the demand side, the price increases of cobalt salt and nickel salt partially offset the costs of hydrometallurgical plants processing ternary and pure cobalt scrap. However, hydrometallurgical costs remained below the profitability line.
Downstream and Terminal: This week, DC-side battery cabin prices remained stable. The average price of a 5MWh DC-side battery cabin was 0.43 yuan/Wh, while the average prices of 3.44MWh and 3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins were 0.438 yuan/Wh. Prices of 280Ah and 314Ah ESS battery cells remained stable, with overall price fluctuations for DC-side battery cabins being minimal. On February 21, the winning candidates for the EPC general contracting project of the Inner Mongolia Ulanqab Huade County power grid-side standalone ESS demonstration project were announced. The project plans to construct a 100MW/400MWh ESS in Huade County, Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, including 90MW/360MWh electrochemical storage and 10MW/40MWh hydrogen storage. The first winning candidate's bid was 429.9899 million yuan, with a unit price of 1.075 yuan/Wh. The second winning candidate's bid was 439.0751 million yuan, with a unit price of 1.098 yuan/Wh. The third winning candidate's bid was 443.3723 million yuan, with a unit price of 1.108 yuan/Wh.
》Subscribe to view SMM new energy product spot historical prices
》Click to view the SMM new energy industry chain database
News:
【Xiaomi Lu Weibing: Xiaomi 15 Ultra Domestic Sales Surpassed the Previous Generation by Over 50%】Lu Weibing, President of Xiaomi Group, announced that the Xiaomi 15 Ultra is selling well globally. It officially went on sale in the Chinese market today, with sales exceeding the previous generation by over 50% during the same period. In overseas markets, pre-sale volumes surpassed the previous generation by over 100%. The Xiaomi 15 Ultra was officially released on February 27 and went on sale at 10:00 AM on March 3.
【China Automobile Dealers Association: February China's Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index at 56.9%】The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" (VIA) by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the inventory warning index for Chinese automobile dealers in February 2025 was 56.9%, down 7.2 percentage points YoY and 5.4 percentage points MoM. The inventory warning index remained above the 50 mark, indicating that the automobile circulation industry is in a sluggish zone. The association's market outlook for March predicts that spring auto shows will be launched in some regions, with multiple new car models intensively released. Coupled with the continued efforts of the trade-in policy, market demand and sales are expected to maintain steady growth. (Cailian Press)
【Del Shares: Solid-State Battery Products Still in Development and Trial Production Stage, No Orders or Revenue Yet】Del Shares (300473.SZ) announced that due to abnormal fluctuations in the company's stock trading prices, it noticed significant market attention on the "solid-state battery concept." After verification, the company stated that it established a Japanese subsidiary in 2018 to conduct R&D on solid-state battery products. The sample trial production line in Shanghai has been completed and is in use. However, solid-state battery products are still in the development and trial production stage, with no orders or revenue generated yet. These matters will not significantly impact the company's 2025 performance. Investors are advised to make rational decisions, invest prudently, and be aware of investment risks.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Ye Yuan 021-51595792
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Ying Xu 021-51666707
Yanlin Lü 021-20707875
Yujun Liu 021-20707895
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
