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[SMM Analysis] Under Strong Lithium Carbonate Supply, Prices Are More Likely to Fall Than Rise

  • Feb 20, 2025, at 4:26 pm

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices showed sideways movement. Today, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 76,220 yuan/mt; battery-grade lithium carbonate was at 75,470-76,970 yuan/mt, with an average price of 76,220 yuan/mt; industrial-grade lithium carbonate was at 73,150-74,150 yuan/mt, with an average price of 73,650 yuan/mt. The weekly average price fell by around 400 yuan/mt WoW.

Demand side, downstream material plants had sufficient stockpiling before the Chinese New Year, and after the holiday, only a few manufacturers had minimal restocking needs. Considering the lack of clear guidance on March production schedules, downstream material plants generally adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, with limited stockpiling or purchases, leading to relatively sluggish market transactions.

Supply side, most lithium chemical plants have completed maintenance and resumed normal production levels, while some are still ramping up production. As a result, domestic lithium carbonate output is clearly on the rise. Combined with the situation of imported lithium carbonate, domestic lithium carbonate is expected to remain in surplus in February, with a relatively large surplus margin, making spot lithium carbonate prices more likely to fall than rise.

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