SMM February 20 News:
Price Review:
As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 3,391 yuan/mt, down 411 yuan/mt WoW. Among them, Shanxi reported 3,200-3,350 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt WoW; Henan reported 3,300-3,340 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi reported 3,250-3,350 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi reported 3,360-3,420 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt WoW; Guizhou reported 3,370-3,470 yuan/mt, down 105 yuan/mt WoW; and Bayuquan reported 4,510-4,590 yuan/mt.
Overseas Market:
As of February 20, 2025, FOB Western Australia alumina prices were $520/mt, with ocean freight rates at $19.85/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.29, translating to an external selling price of approximately 4,528 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 1,199 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remained closed. This week, three new overseas spot alumina transactions were recorded:
1) On February 13, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted for May shipment, with the buyer choosing either $505/mt FOB Brazil (95% prepayment) or destination CIF, equivalent to Brazil FOB plus freight (cash against documents);
2) On February 13, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted for March shipment at $541/mt CIF Kakinada, India, sourced from Australia, Indonesia, or Vietnam;
3) On February 17, 25,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $510/mt FOB Go Dau, Vietnam, for March shipment.
Domestic spot alumina prices fell to low levels, gradually opening the alumina export window. This week, Shandong recorded a total transaction of 84,000 mt of alumina at transaction prices of 3,340-3,350 yuan/mt, reportedly mainly for export.
Domestic Market:
According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the national weekly operating rate of alumina decreased by 0.34 percentage points WoW to 86.27%. Among them, Shandong's weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 92.66%; Shanxi's weekly operating rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points WoW to 78.37%; Henan's weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 68.45%; and Guangxi's weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 93.94%. During the period, spot alumina transactions turned sluggish, and spot alumina prices stabilized after declining, with market sentiment becoming more cautious. This week, Henan recorded 3,000 mt of alumina transactions at a transaction price of 3,400 yuan/mt; Guizhou recorded 4,500 mt of alumina transactions at transaction prices of 3,370-3,480 yuan/mt; and Shandong recorded 84,000 mt of alumina transactions at transaction prices of 3,340-3,350 yuan/mt.
Overall:
In the north, minor alumina production cuts and maintenance news emerged, coupled with concentrated reports of domestic alumina exports, boosting alumina prices and improving market sentiment. This week, spot alumina prices stabilized after declining. However, operating capacity for alumina remained high, and incremental demand for aluminum was limited, leaving the fundamental structure unchanged. Resistance at the top of alumina prices persisted. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the alumina export window and changes in operating capacity.
