Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,976.5/mt. During the Asian trading session, the market saw sluggish trading, with LME lead consolidating between $1,975-1,980/mt. Entering the European session, the US dollar index fell consecutively, boosting base metals. LME lead also fluctuated upward, approaching the key $2,000/mt level and recovering nearly all losses from the previous day. LME lead ultimately closed at $1,991.5/mt, up 0.94%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2503 contract opened at 17,150 yuan/mt. With visible lead ingot inventory increasing, SHFE lead nearly broke below 17,100 yuan/mt at the start of trading. Later, driven by LME lead's gains, SHFE lead rebounded but mostly consolidated between 17,125-17,160 yuan/mt. It eventually closed at 17,125 yuan/mt, down 0.03%, with open interest at 37,256 lots, an increase of 94 lots from the previous trading day.
》Click to View SMM Lead Spot Historical Prices
Macro: PBOC stated it would adjust and optimize policy intensity and pace when appropriate to promote reasonable price recovery, closely monitor monetary policy changes of major overseas central banks, prevent capital idling, and enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market. Trump announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners but did not specify the timing. Media reports suggest the tariffs may take effect on April 1.
Yesterday in the lead spot market, SHFE lead maintained a high-level consolidation trend. Suppliers actively sold, with some spot discounts widening again. Specifically, ex-factory cargoes self-picked up from production sites were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, with premiums in South China further reduced. For secondary lead, refineries sold based on market trends, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 120-50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory. Downstream enterprises gradually inquired and negotiated prices, with significant differences in some cases, leading to relatively improved market activity. In the trading market, quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were on par with the SHFE 2502 contract or the SHFE 2503 contract.
Inventory: As of February 12, LME lead inventory increased by 100 mt to 225,525 mt. As of February 13, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 52,200 mt, up 8,800 mt from February 6 and 6,100 mt from February 10.
》Click to View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database
Lead Price Forecast Today:
With only two working days left until the delivery of the SHFE lead 2502 contract, suppliers are increasingly transferring to delivery warehouses, especially near major consumption areas where inventory growth is evident. This week, most upstream and downstream enterprises in the lead industry chain have resumed production. Some downstream enterprises are buying the dip as needed, leading to marginal improvement in spot transactions. However, due to issues with orders and worker availability, most enterprises have limited demand for lead ingots, causing spot discounts to widen further compared to the beginning of the week. Before delivery, delivery brands are expected to continue transferring to warehouses, and visible inventory may continue to increase.
