★Macro★
01★★★
【US Fed's Williams: GDP Expected to Grow 2% in 2025 and 2026】
US Fed's Williams stated that GDP is expected to grow 2% in 2025 and 2026, with the US economy in good condition. Due to the impact of government policies, the economic outlook remains highly uncertain. The US unemployment rate is expected to stay between 4% and 4.25%. Significant progress has been made in reducing inflation; monetary policy is well-prepared to achieve the Fed's goals; moderately restrictive policies should bring inflation down to 2%; inflation is expected to remain around 2.5% this year and reach 2% in the coming years.
02★★★
【Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Trade Wars and Tariff Wars Have No Winners】
Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, hosted a regular press conference on February 12. In response to the US announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, Guo Jiakun stated that protectionism is not a solution, and trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, which has become a common consensus in the international community. The US actions seriously violate WTO rules, severely undermine the rules-based multilateral trading system, and do not help solve its own problems.
03★★
【PBOC to Issue RMB Central Bank Bills Through HKMA's CMU】
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that on Friday, February 14, 2025, it will issue the second and third tranches of central bank bills for 2025 through the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) bond tendering platform. The second tranche has a 3-month (91-day) maturity, is a fixed-rate interest-bearing bond, and will mature with principal and interest repayment. The issuance volume is RMB 40 billion, with a start date of February 18, 2025, and a maturity date of May 20, 2025 (adjusted for holidays). The third tranche has a 1-year maturity, is a fixed-rate interest-bearing bond with semi-annual interest payments, and an issuance volume of RMB 20 billion, with a start date of February 18, 2025, and a maturity date of February 18, 2026 (adjusted for holidays). Both tranches have a face value of RMB 100 and will be issued via Dutch auction, with the bidding target being the interest rate.
04★★
【US White House Official: Canadian Steel and Aluminum Exports to the US May Face 50% Tariff】
On February 11, a White House official stated that the 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum exports to the US will be added to other tariffs on Canadian goods. The official noted that US President Trump plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, on top of the previously announced 25% blanket tariff on Canadian imports. If these planned measures are implemented, the combined tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum exports to the US will reach 50%. On February 10, US President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the US.
★Industry and Downstream★
01★★★★
【SMM Survey: Blast Furnace Operating Rate at 85.84%, Down 0.13% MoM】
According to an SMM survey, as of February 12, the blast furnace operating rate at 242 surveyed steel mills was 85.84%, down 0.13% MoM. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.67%, down 0.77% MoM. Daily pig iron production at the sampled steel mills averaged 2.3653 million mt, down 13,800 mt MoM.
02 ★★★★
【SMM: Rebar Inventory in Hangzhou Continues to Build Up】
This week, Hangzhou's inventory reached 1.063 million mt, with an inventory buildup of 240,000 mt WoW, up 29.16% WoW. 【SMM Steel】
03 ★★★★
【SMM: HRC Inventory in Lecong Accelerates Buildup】
This week, Lecong's HRC inventory reached 98,190 mt, up 101,900 mt WoW (+10.38%); up 39,100 mt YoY on a lunar calendar basis (+3.98%). 【SMM Steel】
04 ★★
【SMM: HRC Inventory in Zhangjiagang Slightly Decreases】
This week, Zhangjiagang's HRC inventory stood at 446,000 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW (-1.11%); down 2.19% YoY on a solar calendar basis and 14.07% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. 【SMM Steel】
05 ★★
【Domestic Commodity Futures Closed Mixed; TSR 20 Rubber and Rubber Up Nearly 2%】
Domestic commodity futures closed mixed, with TSR 20 rubber and rubber up nearly 2%, while apples, fuel oil, urea, and palm oil rose over 1%. Meanwhile, silicon manganese fell over 5%, caustic soda dropped over 3%, alumina declined over 2%, and soybean meal and No. 2 soybeans fell over 1%.
★Other Hot Topics★
⭕【Nissan's January Sales in China Down Over 30% YoY】
Nissan Motor Co. announced its January 2025 performance in China on February 12. Nissan's January sales in China, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, totaled 45,418 units (including Infiniti imported models), compared to 65,553 units in the same period last year. In January 2025, Dongfeng Nissan (including Nissan, Venucia, and Infiniti brands) recorded sales of 43,623 units, while the light commercial vehicle division (Zhengzhou Nissan) sold 1,795 units.
⭕【Second Batch of Jiangsu Provincial Mother Fund's Industry-Specific Funds Signed, Totaling RMB 40.8 Billion】
The second batch of 22 industry-specific funds under Jiangsu's strategic emerging industries mother fund, with a total scale of RMB 40.8 billion, held a centralized signing ceremony in Nanjing on February 12. The fund initiators include representatives from Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nantong, Yangzhou, Lianyungang, Huai'an, Yancheng, Taizhou, and Suqian, positioning Jiangsu's emerging industry fund cluster as a pioneer. Representatives from Suhao Holding Group, Jiangsu Coastal Group, Jiangsu Environmental Protection Group, and Jiangsu Data Group also participated in the signing.
