》Check SMM Aluminum Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis
SMM, February 11:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2503 contract opened at 20,582 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,780 yuan/mt, a low of 20,560 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,675 yuan/mt, up 0.83%. Trading volume was 135,000 lots, and open interest was 173,000 lots.
SMM Comments: On the macro front, the EU intensified sanctions, and the US imposed tariff pressures. In the short term, the global aluminum market will undergo structural adjustments due to policy impacts, requiring continuous attention to the dynamics of EU-US trade policies and changes in major consumer market demand. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars. The State Council studied measures to boost consumption, providing some confidence to the market. Fundamentals side, the pressure of aluminum supply resumption has re-emerged, with domestic aluminum operating capacity expected to rise slowly in February. The average spot price of alumina continued to weaken, driving aluminum costs to extend their downward trend. Cost side, support continued to weaken, with aluminum costs falling below 18,000 yuan/mt, and industry profits exceeding 2,700 yuan/mt. Inventory side, it remains in a post-holiday inventory buildup phase, with inventory expected to increase rapidly during the week. Demand side, the operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises rose 5.7 percentage points WoW to 56.8%. Although currently in the off-season, operating rates of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil, secondary alloy, and extrusion enterprises have all increased, especially with top-tier automotive extrusion enterprises accelerating their resumption of operations, providing support for demand. Meanwhile, due to financial constraints and fewer orders on hand before the holiday, extrusion enterprises stockpiled relatively less, which may lead to some stockpiling sentiment after the holiday. With the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, aluminum processing enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the consumer market is expected to recover gradually. In the near term, focus should be on the impact of tariff events, post-holiday aluminum ingot inventory changes, and the pace of downstream resumption. SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,460 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,526 yuan/mt, a low of 3,398 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,455 yuan/mt, down 0.86%. Trading volume was 189,000 lots, and open interest was 140,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Overall, in the short term, alumina operating capacity continues to increase, and the alumina spot market supply is relatively ample compared to earlier periods, with spot transaction prices continuing to decline. In the short term, there are no clear expectations for production cuts in alumina. Supply remains stable, but some aluminum production cuts or technological transformation capacities in south-west China may gradually resume production, leading to a slight demand rebound. However, this is unlikely to reverse the relatively ample supply situation in the alumina spot market. Further attention should be paid to bauxite prices and supply conditions.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
