Lithium Ore:
At the beginning of this week, lithium ore prices remained flat WoW. Recently, the market circulation of ores has not significantly improved, and overseas mines maintained a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Overall quotations remained high, while the demand side showed weak acceptance of these high prices due to the downward trend in lithium carbonate prices. The overall market transactions were mediocre. Domestically, the available supply of lithium ore concentrates was limited, so domestic miners' quotations did not change significantly with the decline in lithium carbonate prices, keeping overall prices stable. For lepidolite, small and medium-sized suppliers continued to stand firm on quotes, while the demand side showed weak purchase willingness due to quality and volume concerns, resulting in a market characterized by more inquiries but fewer transactions.
Lithium ore prices are expected to fluctuate along with lithium carbonate prices.
Lithium Carbonate:
At the beginning of this week, spot lithium carbonate prices showed a slight decline. Based on current market transactions, downstream material plants exhibited weak purchase willingness due to sufficient pre-holiday stockpiling and mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with some transactions occurring among traders. Considering the expected increase in domestic lithium carbonate production and overseas import volumes, the domestic lithium carbonate market in February is anticipated to remain in a surplus pattern. Spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to show a slight downward trend, accompanied by sideways movement.
Lithium Hydroxide:
At the beginning of this week, lithium hydroxide prices were basically flat WoW. In the market, most ternary cathode material plants had sufficient pre-holiday stockpiles and currently showed no demand for spot orders, keeping quotations stable. Although some upstream enterprises were undergoing maintenance and upgrades, they continued to sell from their large inventories, maintaining a firm sentiment on quotes. However, buyers and sellers were mostly engaged in price negotiations for new orders, with no large-scale transactions observed.
Lithium hydroxide prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term.
Refined Cobalt:
After the holiday, refined cobalt prices showed a slight decline. On the supply side, major refined cobalt smelters maintained relatively high operating rates during the Chinese New Year, ensuring sufficient supply in the market. On the demand side, in the first week after the holiday, overall market inquiry and purchase sentiment was weak, and the market remained in an oversupply situation. In the short term, as the supply-demand pattern is unlikely to change, spot prices are expected to have some downside potential.
Intermediate Products:
After the holiday, cobalt intermediate product prices showed a slight decline. On the supply side, spot availability in the market was sufficient. On the demand side, downstream purchase demand had not yet recovered after the holiday, leaving the overall market relatively quiet. Considering the ample future supply of raw materials and the high costs faced by downstream cobalt smelters, raw material prices are unlikely to hold and may still have some downside room.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt salt prices remained stable. On the supply side, due to the Chinese New Year holiday and weakened market demand, some smelters reduced production, leading to a decrease in supply. On the demand side, early restocking had been mostly completed, and market inquiries and transactions were relatively quiet. With inactive market trading sentiment, prices remained temporarily stable. Next week, small-scale producers may slightly lower prices due to sales pressure, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices remained stable. On the supply side, smelters maintained good operating rates. On the downstream demand side, after the holiday, the market overall adopted a wait-and-see attitude, focusing on fulfilling existing orders, with almost no new orders and weak spot demand. Considering the pre-holiday restocking by downstream players, the market was relatively stable this week, with spot prices remaining unchanged. Next week, the Co3O4 market is expected to continue focusing on order deliveries, with prices remaining stable.
Nickel Sulphate:
On February 10, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,598 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,400-27,080 yuan/mt, and the average price was flat WoW.
On the demand side, due to weak orders and the Chinese New Year holiday, precursor production schedules in February were reduced, leading to weaker demand for nickel sulphate. Additionally, some precursor manufacturers had completed basic restocking but still had restocking needs. Inquiry volumes in the post-holiday market increased compared to pre-holiday levels. On the supply side, nickel salt smelters also reduced production schedules this month. This week, some nickel salt smelters began quoting and negotiating, while others had not yet resumed operations. Considering the current losses faced by nickel salt smelters, the industry generally maintained firm prices, with no signs of concessions, and given the existing purchase demand, prices are expected to rise slightly in the near term.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
This week, prices for 5-series consumer-grade, 6-series consumer-grade, and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors remained stable. In terms of raw material costs, the low and stable prices of nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate contributed to the stability of ternary cathode precursor prices. On the demand side, due to reduced production efficiency at ternary cathode material plants during the Chinese New Year and fewer working days overall, February's planned production decreased by approximately 10% compared to January, leading to weaker demand for precursors. On the supply side, the supply situation for precursors also weakened due to the holiday and reduced orders. Currently, long-term contract signings for precursor enterprises remain unsatisfactory, and the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continues. Looking ahead to next week, considering that nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable, cobalt sulphate prices may decline, and manganese sulphate prices may rise slightly, precursor prices are anticipated to show varying degrees of decline, with higher-priced products likely experiencing relatively larger drops.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
On Monday, the costs and prices of 5-series and 6-series ternary cathode materials declined to varying degrees due to the drop in lithium carbonate prices. The costs of 8-series ternary cathode materials remained stable as lithium hydroxide and sulphate prices showed no changes.
In Terms of Production and Supply, the Output of Ternary Cathode Material Declined Overall Due to the Off-Season Period at the Beginning of the Year. In January, the overall operating rate of ternary cathode material enterprises was around 37%, showing a decline compared to December. The traditional off-season led to a decrease in overall orders for ternary cathode materials, with only a few top-tier enterprises maintaining high production levels. Some ternary cathode material producers, mainly supplying overseas customers, experienced smaller order declines compared to others. Industry concentration further increased, with mid- and lower-tier enterprises seeing more significant order reductions. Based on the production schedule for February 2025, China's ternary cathode material output is expected to decrease by 9.6% MoM, primarily due to the Chinese New Year holiday period, during which enterprises shut down production lines. Except for a few producers planning to operate normally without holidays in February, most manufacturers are expected to reduce production during the month.
LFP:
This week, the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, the LFP market showed some changes in its overall operation.
From the price perspective, influenced by the decline in lithium carbonate prices, LFP market prices saw a slight decrease of approximately 120 yuan/mt. Lithium carbonate prices pulled back this week, with a decline of about 500 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, LFP processing fees remained unchanged after the previous adjustment. On the supply side, post-holiday operations at LFP material plants were relatively stable, with top-tier producers maintaining steady production levels. However, some small- and medium-sized LFP plants experienced production cuts. On the demand side, some downstream battery cell manufacturers slightly reduced their LFP procurement volumes for February, indicating weakened downstream market demand. Additionally, minor adjustments were observed in some supply chain structures. Overall, LFP inventory is expected to increase in February, and the short-term supply-demand pattern may face certain changes.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, after the Chinese New Year holiday, iron phosphate prices remained relatively stable.
Due to logistics suspension, iron phosphate enterprises actively stockpiled raw materials before the holiday, avoiding shortages. Prices of industrial ammonium and phosphoric acid remained stable. Most iron phosphate enterprises continued production during the holiday, while others opted for maintenance shutdowns and holiday arrangements. Post-holiday, production has gradually resumed. Downstream demand has not seen significant adjustments and continues to follow planned supply schedules.
LCO:
This week, LCO prices slightly declined, with prices for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V specifications at 134,000 yuan/mt, 137,000 yuan/mt, and 149,000 yuan/mt, respectively.
Affected by the reduction in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, LCO production costs also saw a slight decrease. Following the Chinese New Year holiday, most enterprises gradually resumed production, primarily fulfilling pre-holiday orders. Downstream smartphone manufacturers actively stockpiled inventory, and with the support of national subsidy policies, LCO procurement demand increased significantly. Post-holiday market demand is expected to further recover. Overall, despite a short-term slight decline in production, the LCO market outlook remains optimistic as terminal digital market demand surges.
Anode:
This week, anode prices remained relatively firm.
Cost side, due to low inventory levels of low-sulphur petroleum coke and the impact of tax policy adjustments, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices are expected to continue rising this week. As low-sulphur petroleum coke prices approach those of oil-based green needle coke, demand for needle coke from anode manufacturers has increased. Needle coke producers are also affected by tax policy adjustments, leading to potential price increases for oil-based green needle coke this week. Under the integrated development trend, the outsourced graphitisation market continues to face oversupply, with sluggish demand, keeping graphitisation prices stable this week. Demand side, downstream demand declined due to the Chinese New Year holiday. In summary, despite high production costs, anode manufacturers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. However, limited by the slight decline in market demand during the holiday, prices remained stable this week. Anode material prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Separator:
This week, lithium battery separator material prices remained stable.
Due to prolonged price wars and price suppression by battery cell manufacturers, separator material prices have been pushed to low levels. Additionally, downstream battery cell manufacturers' demand declined due to the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to reduced operating rates for separator enterprises. As a result, separator enterprises showed increasing sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Facing weak demand and supply, downstream battery cell manufacturers have mostly stopped suppressing prices to ensure procurement. Therefore, separator prices remained stable this week. Looking ahead, with the gradual release of separator capacity, the separator market may continue to face oversupply. To compete for market orders, separator enterprises may adopt price reduction strategies.
Electrolyte:
This week, electrolyte prices remained stable.
On the supply side, after the Chinese New Year holiday, market demand was weak. LiPF6 production was order-based, and electrolyte manufacturers picked up goods based on orders, with limited transactions and stable prices. On the demand side, battery cell manufacturers' demand for electrolytes gradually declined, with order-based procurement. On the cost side, prices of LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are mainly influenced by LiPF6 prices. However, due to price suppression by battery cell manufacturers, electrolyte prices remained stable. Prices for ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100 to 29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800 to 25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost-side fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to oscillate within a certain range.
Sodium-Ion Battery:
After the Chinese New Year holiday, the sodium-ion battery market remained relatively sluggish.
Due to the lack of significant downstream demand growth and tight upstream capacity, post-holiday sodium-ion battery material enterprises faced difficulties in order fulfillment. However, new capacity is expected to be gradually released in February, and demonstration project tenders for 2025 will also commence, signaling market maturity and bringing incremental demand.
Recycling:
This week, prices in the recycled scrap market remained basically stable.
On the supply side, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, most enterprises resumed operations only on Tuesday. Some small- and medium-sized crushing plants and traders are expected to remain on holiday until around the Lantern Festival, resulting in limited scrap circulation and relatively sluggish transactions. On the demand side, prices of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate remained basically flat, while lithium carbonate prices slightly declined. Some LFP recycling enterprises faced more severe losses due to the decline in lithium chemicals prices, while black mass prices remained stable, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. Most large recycling enterprises, to avoid last year's post-holiday price surge and high-cost black mass procurement, had stockpiled about one month's inventory before the holiday and showed low acceptance of high-priced black mass in the market. In the short term, black mass prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by nickel, cobalt, and lithium chemicals prices, while black mass coefficients are likely to remain stable under the weak supply and demand scenario.
Downstream and Terminal:
Post-holiday operations saw DC side prices remain stable. The average price of 0.5C 5MWh battery cabins remained at 0.433 yuan/Wh, while 3.42MWh and 3.77MWh battery cabins averaged 0.435 yuan/Wh, consistent with pre-holiday prices.
This week, the winning bid result for the 1GW/2GWh flexible shared energy storage project in Lingshou County by Ruite New Energy was announced. Huizhou EVE Energy Co., Ltd. won the bid with 278.4 million yuan, with a tender scale of 200MW/400MWh, translating to a unit price of 0.696 yuan/Wh. The first phase of the project (300MW/600MWh) is scheduled for grid connection and operation in August 2024, also supplied by EVE Energy. For this bid, EVE Energy continued its cooperation with the tendering party, Beijing State Grid Electric Power Technology Co., Ltd., providing energy storage systems, including battery cabins, PCS integrated machines, energy management systems (EMS), and services such as design, manufacturing, on-site installation guidance, commissioning, grid-related testing, trial operation participation, acceptance assistance, and equipment maintenance during the warranty period.
According to the previously announced list of bid candidates, the second candidate was Shandong Electric Power Times Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 278.79 million yuan, translating to 0.697 yuan/Wh. The third candidate was Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 257.2968 million yuan, translating to 0.643 yuan/Wh.
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News:
【During the Chinese New Year, National Sales of Trade-In Activities for Automobiles, Home Appliances, and Digital Products Exceeded 31 Billion Yuan】
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released data showing that during the Chinese New Year period (January 28–February 4, 2025), trade-in activities for consumer goods were actively carried out nationwide. Sales of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products reached 8.6 million units, with sales revenue exceeding 31 billion yuan. Sales revenue for home appliances and smartphones increased significantly YoY by approximately 166% and 182%, respectively. Smartphones and other digital products became the "new year goods" of this year's Chinese New Year, effectively boosting consumer market vitality.
【UBS: Optimistic About Chinese Automakers Leading the AI Revolution; New Energy Vehicle Startups with Technical Backgrounds Are Key Focus】
Min Gong, Head of China Automotive Industry Research at UBS Investment Bank, stated that in the long term, UBS expects Chinese automakers to lead in smart innovation and promote these technologies in mass-market vehicles, despite their valuations accounting for only about 10% of global automakers' market value. UBS anticipates that new energy vehicle startups with technical backgrounds will be key focus areas due to their involvement in AI development and application in vehicles and manufacturing processes. UBS expects AI to be a major topic in future earnings calls.
【Black Sesame Intelligence Responds to Reports Related to BYD】
Black Sesame Intelligence announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that its board of directors had noticed unusual fluctuations in the company's stock price and trading volume on February 7. Referring to recent media reports about the company's products being used in BYD vehicles, the board clarified that the group has long-term cooperative relationships with leading Chinese automotive OEMs, including but not limited to BYD, as part of its regular business operations. As of the date of this announcement, there have been no significant changes in this cooperation that require disclosure under listing rules. The company will continue to comply with disclosure requirements under the listing rules as necessary.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Ye Yuan 021-51595792
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Ying Xu 021-51666707
Yanlin Lü 021-20707875
Yujun Liu 021-20707895
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
