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[SMM Analysis] Futures Market Declined First and Then Rose After the Holiday, Ningbo HRC Prices Remained Stable
Feb 08, 2025, at 5:36 pm
[SMM Analysis: Futures Market Declined Before Rebounding After the Holiday, Ningbo HRC Prices Remained Stable] According to the SMM survey, this week, the large-scale inventory of HRC in Ningbo tracked by SMM was 274,100 mt (as of February 5), up 44,100 mt WoW.
[SMM Analysis] Post-Holiday Futures Rebounded After Initial Decline, Ningbo HRC Prices Remained Stable
According to the SMM survey, this week, the large-scale inventory of HRC in Ningbo was 274,100 mt (as of February 5), up 44,100 mt WoW. After the Chinese New Year holiday, futures prices initially dropped significantly but gradually rebounded. As of the afternoon close on February 7, the most-traded HRC 2501 futures contract settled at 3,449 yuan/mt. In the first week after the holiday, prices were basically stable, with most city traders standing firm on quotes. Downstream sectors had not fully resumed operations, and overall trading volume was at a medium-to-low level. According to the SMM survey, in the Ningbo spot trading market this week, transaction prices of mainstream HRC resources were mainly stable with a weak trend. As of the afternoon of February 7, late-session spot quotes were at 3,470-3,480 yuan/mt, down 10-20 yuan/mt from 3,490 yuan/mt on the Friday before the holiday. The market was still gradually recovering after the holiday, with most downstream traders yet to resume operations. HRC transactions were mostly between traders, with daily trading volume at a medium-to-weak level, and actual demand for uncoiling was not evident. Post-holiday inventory continued to build up, increasing by approximately 40,000 mt WoW. Looking ahead, whether demand can recover quickly remains to be seen. In the short term, Ningbo HRC is expected to face continued inventory buildup risks.
This week, SMM released the weekly balance data. In the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, steel mills maintained high production levels with stable production enthusiasm, and HRC production continued to increase. Post-holiday futures initially declined and then rebounded, showing mainly sideways movement. The spot market saw average trading sentiment, and there were virtually no transactions during the holiday due to market closure. As a result, both social inventory and in-plant inventory of HRC showed significant buildup this week. However, overall, the post-holiday inventory buildup in mainstream markets was better than the historical average for the same period. Currently, the total HRC inventory nationwide stands at 5.2011 million mt, up 845,100 mt WoW. Looking ahead, steel mills are maintaining high production enthusiasm, and HRC supply pressure persists. However, the full resumption of end-users may take time, and demand recovery could be delayed. Therefore, HRC inventory is expected to continue building up next week.
