Macro front, after Trump took office during the week, the tone of tariff policies was weaker than expected, leading to a pullback in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index. Additionally, other US policy packages brought significant market uncertainties, highlighting the safe-haven value of precious metals and providing some support to base metals. However, as the capital market had already priced in these factors, macro concerns weakened. On other fronts, the ECB's interest rate cut pace met expectations, domestic policies remained positive, and post-holiday attention should focus on the specific policies introduced by Trump. If tariff-related policies exceed market expectations, base metals will continue to benefit, and vice versa.
Fundamentally, observing the cost side of the aluminum industry, the immediate full average cost of aluminum was approximately 18,426 yuan/mt, down 1,157 yuan/mt WoW. Cost-side support continued to weaken. On the demand side, previous export orders were delayed domestically due to rush orders, coupled with supply-side shipment disruptions, resulting in the current low inventory situation. Now, downstream delayed orders have been digested, and shipment disruptions may have ended, leading aluminum ingots into a seasonal inventory buildup phase, exerting upward resistance on aluminum prices.
Technically, the model predicts that the SMM A00 aluminum average price will range between [19,995, 20,665] yuan/mt from this Thursday to next Wednesday (2025-02-05), with a price center of 20,310 yuan/mt. The extreme price range is [19,650, 21,020] yuan/mt, the normal price range is [19,880, 20,780] yuan/mt, and the conservative price range is [20,110, 20,550] yuan/mt. Next week's price trend is expected to fluctuate rangebound or fluctuate downward. The support range is [19,880, 20,110] yuan/mt, and the resistance range is [20,550, 20,780] yuan/mt.
In summary, cost-side support for aluminum continues to weaken, and aluminum ingots are entering the traditional seasonal inventory buildup phase. In the short term, aluminum prices face resistance, with the price center expected to retreat. Post-holiday attention should focus on aluminum ingot inventory changes during the Chinese New Year and the pace of downstream resumption of work. Aluminum ingot inventory buildup is expected to remain within expectations, limiting the downside for aluminum prices. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract will trade around 19,900-20,300 yuan/mt in the week following the holiday, while LME aluminum will trade around $2,530-2,630/mt.
Data source: SMM
