Lithium Ore:
At the beginning of this week, lithium ore prices showed a slight upward trend overall. For spodumene, based on the relatively high prices from last week's Australian ore auction, spodumene price quotations increased accordingly. Other small and medium-sized suppliers, due to logistics constraints near the Chinese New Year, mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude. On the demand side, there was some purchase willingness, and the psychological acceptance price increased slightly with the rise in futures and spot prices, leading to a moderate overall market price increase. For lepidolite, prices remained basically flat WoW, mainly because smelters, facing losses, had limited acceptance of relatively high prices. This week, December's lithium concentrate import volume was updated, reaching 482,300 mt, basically flat MoM compared to November.
Lithium ore prices are expected to remain stable in line with lithium carbonate prices.
Lithium Carbonate:
At the beginning of this week, lithium carbonate spot prices remained stable. With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching next week, most logistics and transportation had already ceased this week, resulting in very few transactions in the lithium carbonate spot market. Downstream material plants reported that pre-holiday restocking had been completed, and there were no purchase plans this week. Only some inquiries and quotations were observed among traders. It is expected that, under the relatively sluggish conditions in the lithium carbonate spot market this week, spot prices will remain stable.
Lithium Hydroxide:
At the beginning of this week, lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise slightly. On the production side, some suppliers continued planned maintenance recently. In the market, suppliers showed a sentiment to stand firm on quotes due to high costs and slow progress in long-term contracts. On the demand side, as previous stockpiling had been mostly completed and most logistics ceased this week, there was no significant willingness for bulk purchases, leading to relatively sluggish overall market transactions compared to earlier periods. Additionally, December's lithium hydroxide export volume reached 7,028 mt, up 21% MoM, while imported lithium carbonate was 608 mt, down 50% MoM.
Lithium hydroxide prices are expected to remain stable under relatively sluggish conditions before the holiday.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt prices declined slightly. On the supply side, current market inventory is relatively high, and mainstream smelters maintained high operating rates, resulting in sufficient overall supply. On the demand side, year-end restocking had mostly concluded, and market inquiries during the week were relatively quiet. Considering the overall market situation, due to pessimistic sentiment toward cobalt prices, large-scale restocking in the spot market has not occurred, with most transactions driven by just-in-time procurement. As a result, spot prices faced downward pressure under oversupply conditions. Next week, with logistics and transportation nearing a halt before the Chinese New Year, spot market activity is expected to decline further, and spot prices are likely to remain stable.
Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. On the supply side, the overall market had sufficient spot availability. On the demand side, due to sluggish transactions in cobalt-related products and the approaching year-end holiday, actual market procurement demand declined. From a market perspective, raw material prices remained high, and the spot market was primarily focused on long-term contract deliveries, resulting in minimal price fluctuations. Next week, with logistics and transportation nearing a halt before the holiday, spot trading sentiment is expected to become even more subdued, and spot prices are likely to remain stable.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, while cobalt chloride prices declined slightly. On the supply side, cobalt salt smelters maintained relatively low operating rates. On the demand side, market demand was limited to basic procurement, showing overall weakness, with low acceptance of high-priced cobalt salts, leading to relatively sluggish transactions this week. As the year-end approaches, some cobalt salt producers, driven by the need for cash flow, sold products at prices below the market level, further suppressing spot prices. Next week, with no significant changes expected in market supply and demand, spot prices are unlikely to stabilize and may face further downward pressure.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices declined slightly. On the supply side, Co3O4 smelters reduced operating rates. On the demand side, only a few companies placed sporadic new orders, while demand in the LCO market remained mediocre, primarily driven by just-in-time restocking. The overall market exhibited weak supply and demand. Next week, with limited willingness for low-price sales and firm quotations, combined with continued just-in-time procurement in the LCO market, spot prices are expected to remain stable.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of Monday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,534 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,310–26,990 yuan/mt, and the average price increased WoW. On the demand side, this week was not a traditional peak procurement period, with only a few companies making market inquiries, resulting in relatively sluggish market transactions. However, precursor producers showed improved acceptance of prices. On the supply side, some nickel salt smelters underwent maintenance or production cuts in January, and some had ceased shipments, leading to continued tightness in nickel salt circulation. In the short term, rising raw material costs and intensified supply shortages are expected to further support sentiment to stand firm on quotes among nickel sulphate producers. Therefore, nickel sulphate prices are expected to continue rising.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
At the beginning of the week, prices for 5-series consumer-grade, 6-series consumer-grade, and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors all increased to varying degrees. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate prices rose, manganese sulphate prices declined, and cobalt sulphate prices remained unchanged. As a result, high-nickel products experienced significant price increases. On the supply side, this was not a peak procurement period, so spot order market demand was relatively sluggish, with precursor producers primarily fulfilling long-term contracts. Long-term contracts were not yet fully signed, and buyers and sellers were still negotiating prices. On the demand side, production plans for ternary cathode material companies decreased compared to December, reflecting relatively weak overall market demand. Regarding future price trends, from a cost perspective, based on the rising costs of nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate, selling prices are expected to increase further, while cobalt sulphate prices may decline. Consequently, prices for various ternary cathode precursor models may rise to varying degrees. Among them, high-nickel products, with a higher proportion of nickel salts in their costs, are expected to see relatively larger price increases, while low-nickel products, with a lower proportion of nickel salts in their costs, are expected to see relatively smaller price increases.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
On Monday, in terms of ternary cathode material costs, nickel sulphate prices rose by 20 yuan/mt WoW, manganese sulphate prices pulled back by 10 yuan/mt, and cobalt sulphate prices remained unchanged. For lithium chemicals, battery-grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 100 yuan/mt. As a result, costs and prices for 6-series monocrystalline/power materials and 8-series polycrystalline/power materials increased by 20 yuan/mt and 40 yuan/mt, respectively, on Monday.
In terms of supply and demand, domestic ternary cathode material producers maintained stable production rhythms before the Chinese New Year. Although January's production schedule slightly declined, the operating rate remained around 40%. Compared to previous years, the expectations for production cuts during this year's Chinese New Year were not significant. Meanwhile, overseas ternary cathode material producers experienced a continuous decline in operating rates due to weak terminal orders, leading to a reduction in global high-nickel material production. On the demand side, domestic battery manufacturers saw a slight YoY decline in ternary power battery production schedules before the Chinese New Year, but the decrease was relatively smaller compared to previous years.
LFP:
This week, LFP market prices continued the upward trend from last week, with an overall average increase of about 430 yuan/mt. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices showed a significant upward trend this week, rising by approximately 1,125 yuan/mt, which was the main driver of the LFP price increase. Additionally, the recent rise in iron phosphate prices boosted the sentiment to stand firm on quotes among LFP material producers. Some producers saw slight increases in processing fees for certain orders, but the overall price increase was not significant, and processing fees remained stable this week. Supply side, LFP material producers maintained active operations this week, with no significant production cuts observed. As of now, there are no reports of production halts during the Chinese New Year, but starting next week, some companies may experience slight production declines due to pre-holiday logistics impacts and reduced labor availability. However, the overall reduction is expected to be minimal, and this month's production is projected to see a slight increase compared to the previous forecast. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers reported good production schedules for January and February, with significant YoY growth compared to the same period last year.
Iron Phosphate:
The iron phosphate market remained active before the Chinese New Year. Leading iron phosphate producers, due to higher production volumes, may adjust prices for customers to ensure stable shipments. As market demand for iron phosphate remained strong, most producers, affected by prolonged losses, showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. On the raw material side, phosphoric acid prices remained stable and may show some concessions before the Chinese New Year, while industrial ammonium prices stayed stable, and ferrous sulphate prices did not see further increases. Some iron phosphate producers may schedule maintenance during the Chinese New Year, while others plan to maintain normal production.
LCO:
This week, LCO prices rose slightly, with the latest prices for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V LCO at 134,000 yuan/mt, 138,000 yuan/mt, and 150,000 yuan/mt, respectively. This week, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rebounded, while Co3O4 prices continued to decline, leading to an overall increase in LCO costs. Supply side, LCO production in January declined due to weakened year-end consumer electronics demand and reduced orders. However, driven by subsidy policies for consumer electronics, terminal consumer electronics market sales are expected to increase after the Chinese New Year, potentially boosting LCO market demand and procurement volumes. Looking ahead, despite short-term weak demand in the smartphone, consumer electronics, and e-cigarette markets, the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and the off-season at the beginning of the year will make it difficult to change the market's supply-demand pattern. However, with the recovery of the terminal consumer electronics market, LCO prices are expected to remain stable in the coming weeks, with a possibility of slight increases.
Anode:
This week, anode prices remained stable. Cost side, as anode manufacturers are currently in the stockpiling phase, raw material low-sulphur petroleum coke saw ideal sales, with inventory at relatively low levels. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices continued to rise this week. In contrast, due to low demand from downstream anode manufacturers for oil-based green needle coke, needle coke producers maintained low operating rates and focused on stable pricing. Graphitisation electricity costs remained high, and combined with weak demand, the overall market continued to face oversupply challenges, with graphitisation prices remaining stagnant this week. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers showed good demand for anode materials, with a low desire to bargain down prices, resulting in smooth shipments for anode producers this week. With the Chinese New Year approaching, demand may slightly pull back, but with high costs, anode producers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Anode prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Separator: This week, lithium battery separator material prices remained stable, with good market supply and sales performance.
Price-wise, due to previous price wars and customer price pressures, separator material prices had been pushed to lower ranges. Currently, as downstream battery cell manufacturers are in the stockpiling phase, separator companies reported ideal order conditions, with market competition easing. Most downstream customers have stopped bargaining down prices to ensure procurement volumes. As new separator production capacities are gradually released, the market may continue to face oversupply, and separator companies might slightly lower quotes in the future to compete for market share.
Electrolyte:
This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. Supply side, as the year-end approaches, market demand pulled back, with LiPF6 produced based on demand and electrolyte manufacturers picking up goods based on orders, resulting in limited transactions and stable prices. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers gradually reduced demand for electrolytes, picking up goods based on orders. Cost side, prices of LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are mainly influenced by LiPF6 prices, but due to price pressures from battery cell manufacturers, electrolyte prices remained stable. The prices for ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100 to 29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800 to 25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to oscillate within a certain range.
Sodium-Ion Battery:
This week, the sodium-ion battery market saw mediocre transactions, with reduced market activity as the Chinese New Year approached. The future development of sodium-ion batteries is mainly expected in the two-wheeler, start-stop power supply, and ESS sectors. Sodium-ion batteries outperform lithium batteries in C-rate and low-temperature performance but require further R&D over time. By 2025, sodium-ion battery production lines for anodes, cathodes, and battery cells are expected to gradually commence production, achieving mass production and cost reductions to meet growing market demand.
Recycling:
This week, the recycled scrap market experienced price fluctuations. Supply side, lithium carbonate prices rose this week, cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, and nickel sulphate prices saw slight increases due to tight supply and continued destocking, though the upward space was relatively limited. Most small and medium-sized hydrometallurgical plants, facing continued losses and minimal year-end scrap price fluctuations, planned to take early holidays before the Chinese New Year. Leading producers maintained normal production but refrained from significant stockpiling. Demand side, most hydrometallurgical companies had completed pre-holiday stockpiling by the end of December. As the year-end approached, most companies preferred to maintain low-speed operations, showing weak acceptance of high-priced black mass. This week, buyers and sellers remained in a price stalemate, with sluggish transactions. As the Chinese New Year approaches, most companies showed low willingness to ship or purchase. In the short term, black mass prices are expected to fluctuate with nickel, cobalt, and lithium salt prices, while black mass coefficients are likely to remain stable due to weak supply and demand.
Downstream and Terminal:
Recently, Saudi Electricity Company announced the awarding of a series of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) project contracts, with a total capacity of 2.5GW/12.5GWh, distributed across five locations in Saudi Arabia.
BYD Auto Industry Co., Ltd. successfully won the bid, responsible for the design, supply, installation supervision, testing, commissioning, and subsequent maintenance of the battery systems. Alfanar Projects will handle the EPC contracts for substations and related engineering. The system will charge during off-peak periods and discharge during peak demand periods. Additionally, it will provide black start functionality, frequency regulation, and voltage support, ensuring improved reliability and efficiency of the power grid. The distribution of the energy storage projects is as follows: Riyadh: 500MW/2,500MWh; Qaisumah: 500MW/2,500MWh; Dawadmi: 500MW/2,500MWh; Al Jouf: 500MW/2,500MWh; Rabigh: 500MW/2,500MWh.
》Order to View SMM New Energy Product Spot Historical Prices
》Click to View SMM New Energy Industry Chain Database
News:
【Insiders: Details of New Purchase Subsidies for the Automotive Sector Expected to Be Released This Friday】According to a report by a Cailian Press journalist, multiple insiders revealed that the implementation details of new purchase subsidies for the automotive sector are planned to be released this Friday. On the previous day, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on "China's High-Quality Economic Development Achievements," Li Gang, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that the Ministry of Commerce would successively issue the implementation details of new purchase subsidies for automobiles, home appliances, home furnishings, electric bicycles, and digital products such as mobile phones in 2025.
【CAAM: Strongly Opposes Biden Administration's Rules Banning the Use of Chinese Smart Connected Vehicle Software and Hardware】On January 14, the Biden administration, citing so-called national security concerns, issued the "Ensuring the Security of Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain for Connected Vehicles" rules, prohibiting transactions involving smart connected vehicles and related systems' hardware and software designed, developed, manufactured, or supplied by Chinese entities. In response, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) strongly opposed the Biden administration's erroneous actions that undermine the global smart connected vehicle industry ecosystem. The unilateral administrative restrictions imposed by the Biden administration, cutting off economic and industrial cooperation with specific countries, not only disrupt fair competition in the global automotive market but also have profound and adverse impacts on the global industry chain. Ultimately, it is the U.S. industry and consumers who will suffer. We urge the Biden administration to objectively review economic and trade issues, avoid politicization and over-securitization, and repeal the prohibitive clauses targeting China in the rules. The global automotive industry should deepen cooperation to jointly promote the healthy and sustainable development of the smart connected vehicle industry.
【Honda America Expects 2025 Vehicle Sales to Grow by About 5%】On January 15, Honda America announced that its 2024 vehicle sales reached 1.4 million units, up nearly 9% YoY. In 2025, Honda brand sales are expected to reach approximately 1.35 million units, while Acura brand sales are targeted at 160,000 units, with an overall YoY growth of about 5% compared to 2024.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Ye Yuan 021-51595792
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Ying Xu 021-51666707
Yanlin Lü 021-20707875
Yujun Liu 021-20707895
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
