★Macro★
01 ★★★【PBOC Achieves Net Injection of 98.2 Billion Yuan in Open Market Operations】
The PBOC conducted 123 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with a winning rate of 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 24.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 98.2 billion yuan was achieved.
02 ★★★ 【PBOC Keeps 5-Year and 1-Year LPR Unchanged】
The January Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released: the LPR for over 5 years remained at 3.6%, and the 1-year LPR stayed at 3.1%, both unchanged from the previous month.
03 ★★ 【"Chinese New Year" Financial Products See Strong Start】
As the Chinese New Year approaches, financial companies and banks have launched "Chinese New Year" financial products. Compared to regular financial products, these "Chinese New Year" products offer higher yields, generally up by 10 basis points. Overall, this year's Chinese New Year-themed financial products mainly focus on short- to medium-term fixed-income products, with terms ranging from 3 to 12 months. Among the disclosed performance benchmarks, the highest upper limit reaches 6%, while the lowest lower limit is 1.5%. Industry insiders noted that in the context of an overall decline in financial market yields, financial companies aim to stabilize their scale and attract customers during the "strong start" phase. Although the average performance benchmark of "Chinese New Year" financial products has risen, it does not guarantee the final yield. The rapid growth momentum of financial product scale is expected to be difficult to sustain in 2025.
★Industry and Downstream★
01 ★★★ 【SMM Hot Topic】HRC Capacity Growth Slows Over the Next Two Years! Is the Capacity Wave Receding?!
According to SMM, as of mid-January 2025, seven new HRC production lines are scheduled to be commissioned in domestic steel mills in 2024, with a total capacity of approximately 22.3 million mt. As shown in Table 1, the new production lines are distributed across north China, east China, and southwest China, with east China and north China accounting for 38.58% and 40.81%, respectively, and southwest China accounting for 20.63%.
02 ★★★【SMM Hot Topic】How Long Will the Export Window for Sheets & Plates to Southeast Asia Last? A Look at Southeast Asia's Sheet & Plate Production Lines
Since 2023, China's total exports to Southeast Asia have continued to grow, making Southeast Asia China's largest export partner. Southeast Asian countries have imported significant volumes of finished steel from China, particularly HRC, which has shown strong performance over the past three years. From January to November 2024, China exported 9.72 million mt of HRC to Southeast Asia, accounting for nearly 40% of China's total global exports.
03 ★★★ 【China's Steel Production in December 2024】
In December 2024, China produced 75.97 million mt of crude steel, up 11.8% YoY, with a daily output of 2.4506 million mt, down 6.2% MoM; 66.7 million mt of pig iron, up 9.4% YoY, with a daily output of 2.1516 million mt, down 4.3% MoM; and 119.1 million mt of steel products, up 7.1% YoY, with a daily output of 3.8419 million mt, down 3.0% MoM. For the full year of 2024, China produced 1.005 billion mt of crude steel, down 1.7% YoY, with an average daily output of 2.7461 million mt; 852 million mt of pig iron, down 2.3% YoY, with an average daily output of 2.3272 million mt; and 1.4 billion mt of steel products, up 1.1% YoY, with an average daily output of 3.8242 million mt.
04 ★★★ 【SMM Special Report】2024 HRC Annual Review and Outlook
In 2024, HRC prices exhibited a "U-shaped" trend. The SMM national average spot price for HRC fluctuated between 3,021-4,115 yuan/mt, with an annual average of 3,649.38 yuan/mt, down approximately 8.9% compared to the 2023 average of 4,004.54 yuan/mt. From the 2024 HRC futures and spot price trends, HRC prices experienced a decline in Q1, a stable upward trend in Q2, a sharp drop followed by a strong rebound in Q3, but due to a lack of sustained upward momentum, prices remained stable with a weak trend in Q4.
05 ★★★ 【China Exported 74.66 Million mt of Sheets & Plates in 2024: Customs Data】
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 6 million mt of steel sheets & plates in December 2024, up 13.9% YoY. For the full year of 2024, cumulative exports reached 74.66 million mt, up 25.2% YoY. In December, China exported 1.46 million mt of steel bars, up 95.8% YoY, with cumulative exports for the year reaching 13.44 million mt, up 24.4% YoY.
06 ★★ 【China Exported 6.41 Million Units of Automobiles in 2024: Customs Data】
According to customs data, China exported 570,000 units of automobiles in December 2024, up 24.9% YoY, with cumulative exports for the year reaching 6.41 million units, up 22.8% YoY. In December, China imported 70,000 units of automobiles, down 15.4% YoY, with cumulative imports for the year reaching 710,000 units, down 11.7% YoY.
★Other Hot Topics★
⭕【Vietnam Issues Affirmative Final Ruling on Anti-Dumping Investigation of Prestressed Steel Strands Involving China】On January 14, 2025, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 143/QD-BCT, making an affirmative final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of prestressed steel strands originating from Malaysia, Thailand, and China. Anti-dumping duties of 9.79%-28% will be imposed on the involved enterprises (see attached table), with Chinese enterprises subject to rates of 10.48%-28%. The case involves products under Vietnamese tariff codes 7312.10.91 and 7312.10.99. The measures will take effect 15 days after the announcement and will remain valid for five years.
⭕【China's 2024 Export Volume of Four Major Home Appliances Released】According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 4.81 million air conditioners in December 2024, up 32.5% YoY, with cumulative exports for the year reaching 61.59 million units, up 28.3% YoY. In December, 6.36 million refrigerators were exported, up 10.7% YoY, with cumulative exports for the year reaching 80.32 million units, up 19.7% YoY. Washing machine exports in December reached 2.82 million units, up 18.3% YoY, with cumulative exports for the year reaching 32.86 million units, up 14.2% YoY. LCD TV exports in December totaled 9.36 million units, up 17.5% YoY, with cumulative exports for the year reaching 109.78 million units, up 11.4% YoY.
⭕【Land Auctions See "Strong Start" in Many Cities, Boosting Real Estate Market Expectations】In 2025, cities such as Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen "strong starts" in land auctions, adding warmth to the real estate market. Notably, data from CRIC Research shows that in December 2024, new and second-hand home transactions in key cities increased by 17% and 11% YoY, respectively, with the opening absorption rate stabilizing at around 40%, the highest level of the year. In the first half of January 2025, the market saw a cyclical pullback, but new home transactions still increased by 47% compared to February 2024, the "Chinese New Year month." Regarding housing prices, as more sample community prices showed MoM increases, market confidence continued to recover. "Recently, land auctions in various regions have been characterized by fierce competition and high premiums for quality plots.
