[SMM Hot Topic] Growth in Hot-Rolled Capacity Slows Down Over the Next Two Years! Is the Capacity Boom Starting to Recede?!

In 2024, a total of 7 hot rolling lines were commissioned, mostly located in north and east China. According to the SMM survey, as of mid-January 2025, 7 new hot rolling production lines were commissioned by domestic steel mills in 2024, with a total capacity of approximately 22.3 million mt. As shown in Table 1, the new production lines are distributed across north, east, and southwest China, with east and north China accounting for 38.58% and 40.81%, respectively, and southwest China accounting for 20.63%. Table 1 - Summary of Hot Rolling Lines Commissioned in 2024 *Note: There may be some discrepancies between the rolling mill models, capacities, and the actual situation of the production lines. An additional 39.54 million mt of hot rolling capacity is expected to be commissioned in the future, with over 77.8% located in north China. As of January 20, SMM surveyed and compiled the future commissioning plans for hot rolling production lines at domestic steel mills. The results are shown in Table 2. Specifically, 12.94 million mt is expected to be commissioned in 2025, 6.8 million mt in 2026, and another 19.8 million mt is pending confirmation, totaling 39.54 million mt of future capacity. A total of 14 new hot rolling lines are expected to be commissioned. By region, north China will add 10 lines, central China 2 lines, and south and north-west China 1 line each. By capacity, north China will account for approximately 77.8% of the planned total capacity, indicating significant supply pressure in the region. Among these, 6 hot rolling lines have not yet announced specific commissioning times, and SMM will continue to monitor developments. Table 2 - Summary of Future Hot Rolling Lines Expected to Be Commissioned *Note: There may be some discrepancies between the actual capacities of the production lines and the currently available public data. The growth rate of hot rolling capacity is expected to slow down in 2025-2026. Figure 1 - National Hot Rolling Capacity Distribution in 2023 Figure 2 - National Hot Rolling Capacity Distribution in 2024 Figure 3 - National Hot Rolling Capacity Distribution Forecast for 2025 According to SMM statistics, the total hot rolling capacity commissioned nationwide in 2024 was 395.81 million mt. If the steel mills' announced plans for new production lines proceed smoothly, the total national capacity is expected to reach approximately 408.75 million mt in 2025, a YoY increase of 3.27%. In 2026, the total national capacity is expected to reach approximately 415.55 million mt, a YoY increase of 1.66%. After years of rapid capacity expansion, the growth rate of hot rolling capacity is expected to decline in the next two years! Figure 4 - Changes in National Hot Rolling Capacity Over the Past 8 Years SMM will continue to monitor the commissioning of hot rolling production lines at domestic steel mills. For detailed information on production line changes, please scan the QR code below.

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[SMM Hot Topic] Growth in Hot-Rolled Capacity Slows Down Over the Next Two Years! Is the Capacity Boom Starting to Recede?!

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