Lithium Ore:
This week, lithium ore prices rose alongside lithium carbonate prices.
For spodumene, overseas mines continued to stand firm on quotes, with prices trending upward in line with lithium carbonate prices. Given the ongoing purchasing demand from non-integrated lithium chemical plants and hedging operations at high futures prices, higher transaction prices occasionally emerged, further supporting the current price increase. Regarding spodumene spot cargoes, due to the ramp-up plans of non-integrated lithium chemical plants and the price rise in lithium chemicals' spot and futures markets, spot inquiries have been relatively active recently. Quotations varied significantly depending on the ore source and volume, while transaction activity improved, and transaction prices moved upward.
For lepidolite, the market has recently experienced a continued undersupply of high-grade lepidolite concentrate, leading to a general price increase. On the supply side, there have been no large-scale auctions recently, and market liquidity has not improved. Other small and medium-sized suppliers continued to stand firm on quotes, but the overall supply volume and stability were uneven. On the demand side, non-integrated lithium chemical plants showed strong purchase willingness. Following the recent price increase in lithium chemicals, the psychological acceptance level for lithium chemicals prices has risen, and transaction price centers have shifted upward.
In the short term, lithium ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating within the lithium carbonate price range but are more likely to rise than fall overall.
Lithium Carbonate:
This week, the transaction price center for lithium carbonate spot cargoes continued to rise, increasing by approximately 1,600 yuan/mt WoW. Considering that logistics will soon halt next week, this week marks the final restocking period before the Chinese New Year. Based on current market transactions, some downstream material plants, due to unsigned long-term contracts, have just-in-time procurement needs for lithium carbonate. Coupled with ongoing restocking sentiment before the holiday, inquiry and transaction activities in the market have been relatively active. Upstream smelters, under sustained cost pressure, exhibited strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes for 2025 long-term contract discount coefficients and spot cargoes. Additionally, the relatively low inventory levels at upstream smelters and minimal selling pressure further supported price increases. Traders also raised prices in response to the active procurement period downstream. Overall, lithium carbonate spot prices continued to rise this week. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, some upstream smelters have begun production line maintenance, while most downstream material plants maintained normal operating status. Considering the logistics halt during the holiday, lithium carbonate spot market transactions are expected to be minimal next week, with spot prices likely to remain stable.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices continued a slight upward trend. On the supply side, to adjust inventory, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell at current elevated prices. On the demand side, some material plants and suppliers made slow progress in negotiating new long-term contracts for the year, resulting in limited long-term contract locking. Coupled with logistics issues as the Chinese New Year approaches, there has been strong purchase and restocking willingness recently, with active inquiries and purchases. Most transactions were made at quoted prices without discounts or with only slight discounts, strongly supporting upstream lithium chemical plants' sentiment to stand firm on quotes and further pushing up the transaction price center for lithium hydroxide. As the Spring Festival travel rush begins in the latter half of the month, combined with the hazardous nature of lithium hydroxide, ternary cathode material plants are expected to complete restocking soon, which may weaken the upward support for lithium hydroxide prices.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt prices slightly declined. On the supply side, current market inventories are relatively high, and mainstream smelters maintained high operating rates, resulting in sufficient overall supply. On the demand side, year-end restocking has mostly concluded, and market inquiries were relatively quiet during the week. Considering the overall market situation, with a pessimistic outlook on cobalt prices, large-scale restocking in the spot market has not occurred, and most transactions were just-in-time procurement. As a result, spot prices faced downward pressure due to oversupply. Next week, as logistics transportation halts before the Chinese New Year, spot market activity is expected to decline further, and spot prices are likely to remain stable.
Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. On the supply side, the overall market had sufficient spot cargoes. On the demand side, due to limited transactions for cobalt-based products and the approaching year-end holiday, actual market procurement demand declined. Considering the market situation, with high raw material prices and most spot transactions being fulfilled through long-term contracts, spot prices showed little fluctuation. Next week, as logistics transportation halts before the Chinese New Year, spot trading activity is expected to become even quieter, and spot prices are likely to remain stable.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, while cobalt chloride prices slightly declined. On the supply side, cobalt salt smelters maintained low operating rates. On the demand side, market demand was limited to basic procurement, with overall performance remaining weak. The market showed low acceptance of high-priced cobalt salts, leading to relatively quiet transactions this week. As the year-end approaches, some cobalt salt producers, driven by cash flow needs, sold products at prices below market levels, further depressing spot prices. Next week, with no significant changes expected in market supply and demand, spot prices are unlikely to stabilize and may still face downward pressure.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices slightly declined. On the supply side, Co3O4 smelters reduced operating rates. On the demand side, only a few companies placed sporadic new orders, while overall demand in the LCO market remained mediocre, primarily driven by just-in-time restocking. The overall market exhibited weak supply and demand. Next week, Co3O4 producers are unlikely to show strong willingness for low-price sales, and quotes are expected to remain firm. Combined with ongoing just-in-time procurement in the LCO market, spot prices are expected to remain stable.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of this Thursday, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,506 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,250-26,970 yuan/mt, and the average price increased WoW. On the demand side, this week was not a traditional peak procurement period, with only a few companies making market inquiries. Market transactions were relatively quiet, but precursor producers showed higher acceptance of prices. On the supply side, some nickel salt smelters halted production for maintenance or reduced production in January, and some had already stopped shipments, keeping nickel salt circulation tight. In the short term, rising raw material costs and intensified supply shortages are expected to further bolster nickel sulphate producers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes, driving nickel sulphate prices higher.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
This week, prices for 5-series consumer-grade, 6-series consumer-grade, and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors all increased to varying degrees. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices rose, while cobalt sulphate prices remained unchanged. As a result, high-nickel products experienced significant price increases. On the supply side, this was not a peak procurement period, so spot market transaction demand was relatively subdued, with precursor producers primarily fulfilling long-term contracts. Long-term contracts for precursors have not been fully signed, and buyers and sellers are still negotiating prices. On the demand side, production plans for ternary cathode material companies decreased compared to December, reflecting relatively weak overall market demand. Regarding future price trends, from a cost perspective, based on the rising costs of nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate, selling prices are expected to increase further, while cobalt sulphate prices may decline. Consequently, prices for various ternary cathode precursor models may rise to varying degrees. High-nickel products, with a higher proportion of nickel salts in their costs, are expected to see larger price increases, while low-nickel products, with a smaller proportion of nickel salts, are expected to see relatively smaller price increases.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
This week, focusing on the cost side of ternary cathode materials, nickel sulphate prices rose by 110 yuan/mt WoW, manganese sulphate increased by 15 yuan/mt, and cobalt sulphate remained unchanged. However, lithium chemicals saw significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 1,650 yuan/mt and lithium hydroxide steadily rising by 370 yuan/mt. As a result, prices for 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode materials all increased to varying degrees. Among them, 5-series monocrystalline power materials experienced the largest increase, rising by approximately 400 yuan/mt WoW due to the significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices.
In terms of supply and demand, domestic ternary cathode material producers maintained stable production rhythms before the Chinese New Year. Although the total production schedule slightly declined this month, the operating rate remained around 40%. Compared to previous years, the expectations for production cuts during the Chinese New Year were not significant. Meanwhile, overseas ternary cathode material producers experienced a continued decline in operating rates due to weak terminal orders, leading to a reduction in global high-nickel material production. On the demand side, domestic battery manufacturers saw a slight YoY decline in the production schedule of ternary power batteries before the Chinese New Year, but the decrease was smaller compared to previous years.
LFP:
This week, the LFP market prices continued the upward trend from last week, with an overall average increase of about 430 yuan/mt. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices showed a significant upward trend this week, rising by approximately 1,125 yuan/mt, which was the main driver of the LFP price increase. Additionally, the recent rise in iron phosphate prices boosted the sentiment to stand firm on quotes among LFP material producers. Some producers saw slight increases in processing fees for certain orders, but the overall price increase was not significant, and processing fees remained stable this week. Supply side, LFP material producers maintained active operations this week, with no significant production cuts observed. As of now, there are no reports of production halts during the Chinese New Year, but starting next week, some companies may experience slight production declines due to pre-holiday logistics impacts and reduced labor availability. However, the overall reduction is expected to be minimal, and the monthly production forecast is slightly revised upward compared to the previous version. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers reported good production schedules for January and February, with significant YoY growth compared to the same period last year.
Iron Phosphate:
The iron phosphate market remained active before the Chinese New Year. Leading iron phosphate producers, due to higher production volumes, may adjust prices for customers to ensure stable shipments. As market demand for iron phosphate remained strong, most producers, affected by prolonged losses, showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Regarding raw materials, phosphoric acid prices remained stable and may show some concessions before the Chinese New Year, while industrial ammonium prices stayed stable, and ferrous sulphate prices did not see further increases. Some iron phosphate producers may schedule maintenance during the Chinese New Year, while others plan to maintain normal production.
LCO:
This week, LCO prices rose slightly, with the latest prices for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V LCO at 134,000 yuan/mt, 138,000 yuan/mt, and 150,000 yuan/mt, respectively. The rebound in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices and the continued decline in Co3O4 prices increased the overall cost of LCO. Supply side, LCO production in January declined, as year-end consumer electronics demand weakened and orders decreased. However, due to subsidies for consumer electronics, terminal market sales are expected to increase after the Chinese New Year, driving a potential recovery in LCO demand and procurement volume. Looking ahead, despite short-term weak demand in the smartphone, consumer electronics, and e-cigarette markets, the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and the off-season at the beginning of the year will make it difficult to change the market's supply-demand pattern. However, with the recovery of the terminal consumer electronics market, LCO prices are expected to remain stable in the coming weeks, with a possibility of slight increases.
Anode:
This week, anode prices remained stable. Cost side, as anode manufacturers are currently in the stockpiling phase, low-sulphur petroleum coke sales were strong, and inventory levels were low. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices continued to rise this week. In contrast, due to low demand from downstream anode manufacturers for oil-based green needle coke, needle coke producers maintained low operating rates and focused on stable pricing. Graphitisation electricity costs remained high, and combined with weak demand, the overall market continued to face oversupply challenges, with graphitisation prices remaining stagnant this week. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers showed good demand for anode materials, with low desire to bargain down prices, leading to smooth shipments for anode producers this week. With the Chinese New Year approaching, demand may pull back slightly, but with high costs, anode producers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Anode prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Separator: This week, lithium battery separator material prices remained stable, with good market supply and sales performance.
Price-wise, due to previous price wars and customer bargaining, separator material prices were pushed to lower ranges. Currently, as downstream battery cell manufacturers are in the stockpiling phase, separator companies reported good order conditions, and market competition eased. Most downstream customers have stopped bargaining to ensure procurement volumes. As new separator production capacity gradually comes online, the market may continue to face oversupply, and separator companies may slightly lower quotes to compete for market share.
Electrolyte:
This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. Supply side, as the year-end approaches, market demand pulled back, with LiPF6 produced based on demand and electrolyte manufacturers fulfilling orders with limited transactions, keeping prices stable. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers gradually reduced electrolyte demand, fulfilling orders as needed. Cost side, prices of LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are mainly influenced by LiPF6 prices, but due to price pressure from battery cell manufacturers, electrolyte prices remained stable. The prices of ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100 to 29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800 to 25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to oscillate within a certain range.
Sodium-Ion Battery:
This week, the sodium-ion battery market saw mediocre transactions, as market activity decreased with the Chinese New Year approaching. The future development of sodium-ion batteries is mainly expected in the two-wheeler, start-stop power supply, and ESS sectors. Sodium-ion batteries outperform lithium batteries in C-rate and low-temperature performance but require further R&D. By 2025, sodium-ion battery production lines for cathodes, anodes, and battery cells are expected to gradually come online, achieving mass production and cost reductions to meet growing market demand.
Recycling:
This week, the recycled scrap market saw price fluctuations. Supply side, cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise due to pre-holiday stockpiling demand. Nickel sulphate prices also increased due to tight market supply and slight destocking. However, as the Chinese New Year approaches, most companies have completed stockpiling, limiting further price increases in the short term. Nevertheless, some traders remain optimistic about the upward trend in nickel and lithium chemical prices, and some downstream companies still have stocking demand, leading to strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Despite this, most small and medium-sized hydrometallurgical plants, facing prolonged losses and minimal year-end price fluctuations, plan to take early holidays before the Chinese New Year, while large enterprises maintain normal production, limited to basic stockpiling. Demand side, most hydrometallurgical companies completed pre-holiday stockpiling by the end of December. As the year-end approaches, companies generally prefer low inventory levels and show low acceptance of high-priced black mass. This week, buyers and sellers remained in a price standoff, with sluggish market transactions. As the Chinese New Year approaches, most companies showed low willingness to ship or purchase. In the short term, black mass prices are expected to fluctuate with nickel, cobalt, and lithium chemical prices, while black mass coefficients remain stable under weak supply and demand.
Downstream and Terminal:
Recently, Saudi Electricity Company announced the awarding of several battery energy storage system (BESS) project contracts, with a total capacity of 2.5GW/12.5GWh, distributed across five locations in Saudi Arabia.
BYD Auto Industry Co., Ltd. successfully won the bid, responsible for the design, supply, installation supervision, testing, commissioning, and subsequent maintenance of the battery systems. Alfanar Projects will handle the EPC contracts for substations and related engineering. The system will charge during off-peak periods and discharge during peak demand periods. Additionally, it will provide black start functionality, frequency regulation, and voltage support to enhance the reliability and efficiency of the power grid. The distribution of the energy storage projects is as follows: Riyadh: 500MW/2,500MWh; Qaisumah: 500MW/2,500MWh; Dawadmi: 500MW/2,500MWh; Al Jouf: 500MW/2,500MWh; Rabigh: 500MW/2,500MWh.
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News:
【Insiders: Subsidy Details for New Purchases in the Automotive Sector Expected to Be Released This Friday】According to a report by a Cailian Press journalist, multiple insiders revealed that the implementation details for subsidies supporting new purchases in the automotive sector are planned to be released this Friday. On the previous day, at a press conference on "China's High-Quality Economic Development Achievements" held by the State Council Information Office, Li Gang, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that the Ministry of Commerce would successively issue the implementation details for subsidies supporting new purchases of automobiles, home appliances, home furnishings, electric bicycles, and digital products such as mobile phones in 2025.
【CAAM: Strongly Opposes Biden Administration's Rules Banning the Use of Chinese Smart Connected Vehicle Software and Hardware】On January 14, the Biden administration, citing so-called national security concerns, issued the "Ensuring the Security of the Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain for Connected Vehicles" rules, prohibiting transactions involving smart connected vehicles and related hardware and software designed, developed, manufactured, or supplied by Chinese entities. In response, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) strongly opposed the Biden administration's erroneous actions that undermine the global smart connected vehicle industry ecosystem. The unilateral administrative restrictions imposed by the Biden administration, forcibly severing economic and trade exchanges and industrial cooperation with specific countries, not only disrupt fair competition in the global automotive market but also have profound and adverse impacts on the global industry chain. Ultimately, it is the U.S. industry and consumers who will suffer. We urge the Biden administration to objectively assess economic and trade issues, avoid politicization and over-securitization, and repeal the prohibitive clauses targeting China in the rules. The global automotive industry should deepen cooperation to jointly promote the healthy and sustainable development of the smart connected vehicle industry.
【Honda America Expects 2025 Vehicle Sales to Grow by About 5%】On January 15, Honda America announced that its 2024 vehicle sales reached 1.4 million units, up nearly 9% YoY. In 2025, Honda brand sales are expected to reach approximately 1.35 million units, while Acura brand sales are targeted at 160,000 units, with an overall YoY growth of about 5% compared to 2024.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Ye Yuan 021-51595792
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Ying Xu 021-51666707
Yanlin Lü 021-20707875
Yujun Liu 021-20707895
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
