SMM

From January-November 2024, China's imported copper cathode totaled 3.368 million mt, up 5.29% YoY. Among this, November imports reached 359,900 mt, up 0.14% MoM but down 4.99% YoY. According to SMM compilation of customs data, the quantity of copper cathode imported from major non-registered copper cathode producing countries in November was 212,400 mt, accounting for 59.04% of total imports.

Overall, November non-registered copper cathode imports saw a slight decline compared to October, with a significant drop in supply from Africa. Furthermore, SMM understands that December outflow from this region to China is unlikely to see substantial growth. However, supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan provided some replenishment in November. This, coupled with downstream efforts to fulfill export orders and relatively tight copper scrap availability, led downstream consumers to favor such supplies.

According to SMM data, the total imported copper volume in 2024 is expected to reach 3.65 million mt, with imports of copper cathode from non-registered producing countries projected at 2.3 million mt, accounting for approximately 63%. Considering that some copper cathode from Africa is gradually being registered on the LME, the actual comprehensive share of non-registered copper cathode is expected to be around 60%.

As year-end approaches, long-term contract negotiations are imminent, and downstream players are paying close attention to the signing of EQ long-term contract prices. According to SMM, 2025 EQ long-term CIF Shanghai contracts are mainly fixed-price, ranging from $0-15/mt, with QP set at M+1, representing an overall decline of $5-10 compared to 2024 long-term contract levels. African local copper miners are also actively bidding, with offers varying widely. FCA mainly includes the following three tiers: ① (-$500) to (-$480)/mt, QP M+3; ② (-$480) to (-$450)/mt, QP M+2; ③ (-$450) to (-$400)/mt, QP M+1.

Although SMM expects the total imported copper cathode volume in 2025 to decline YoY compared to 2024, the share of non-registered supplies is anticipated to continue rising.