Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,570 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,730 yuan/mt and a low of 20,560 yuan/mt, closing at 20,675 yuan/mt, up by 70 yuan/mt or 0.34% from the previous close. On Tuesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,600.5/mt, with a high of $2,606/mt and a low of $2,535.5/mt, closing at $2,671.5/mt, down by $24.5/mt or 0.94%.
Summary: Macro front, the market expects the US Fed to slow the pace of interest rate cuts, with the US dollar index reaching a more than two-month high, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. Domestically, the Ministry of Finance has released a package of incremental policy measures, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on Thursday regarding the promotion of stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Fundamentals side, expectations for production cuts in Yunnan in the fourth quarter have decreased, along with the release of some new and resumed capacity, leading to continued growth in the domestic aluminum market supply side. Cost side, the alumina spot market remains in a tight balance, with an expected increase in domestic aluminum costs in October. Demand side, the current downstream operating rate of producers is generally stable, with inventory falling back to pre-holiday levels during the week, and market circulation remains tight. Overall, the supply-demand mismatch in the aluminum market fundamentals is not prominent, with a short-term fluctuating trend expected, focusing on changes in macro sentiment both domestically and internationally and end-use consumption.
