[China's December 2023 refined nickel output & Import Analysis]
1. China's December 2023 refined nickel output was 24,500 mt, up 6% MoM
China's December 2023 refined nickel output was 24,500 mt, up 6% MoM and 40.57% YoY, matching SMM forecasts. A northwest smelter's push for year-end growth notably lifted production over November's. December's nickel production growth was spurred by a moderate price rebound and a dip in raw material costs, which allowed smelters who source raw material externally to make profits, prompting previously idle smaller factories to restart production.China's refined nickel output is expected to hit 23,700 mt in January 2024, down 3% MoM. This is due to potential further price drops amid global stock and production pressures, risking losses if prices near production costs. Also, a smelter has scheduled lower early-year output.
2. In November 2023, imports were 7,710 mt of refined nickel and 679 mt of nickel powde
November 2023 customs data shows China imported 7,710 mt of refined nickel (including unwrought non-alloy nickel with nickel and cobalt with a total content of ≥99.99% and cobalt ≤0.005%, other unwrought non-alloy nickel, and unwrought nickel alloy), with 2,569 mt being cleared through customs, down 23.75% MoM and 80.12% YoY. Imports of other unwrought alloy nickel were 4,731 mt, 65.98% of the total, down 63.27% MoM. November 2023 non-alloy nickel powder imports (HS code 75040010) were 679 mt, up 117.94% MoM but down 31.78% YoY. November 2023 nickel briquette imports were 322.51 mt, down 67% MoM and down 73% YoY. November 2023 saw China's highest refined nickel imports from Russia at 4,146 mt, Norway at 1,603 mt, and Japan at 691 mt, with no imports from Australia or Madagascar.
November saw 2,569 mt of refined nickel clear customs, down 23.75% MoM. Increased imports but reduced clearances indicate most stayed in bonded areas or was re-exported, not hitting the spot market directly. SMM research shows that November 2023 had sparse but improved refined nickel spot transactions MoM. This uptick was due to falling nickel prices and optimistic market news, tempering expectations of further price drops. Imported refined nickel entering the spot market was mainly for stockpiling or warehouse receipts, boosting both in November. With weak domestic demand and new electro-deposited nickel replacing imports, December's refined nickel clearances may keep falling.
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