SMM

SMM forecasts a sharp decline in domestic silicon wafer scheduled production at the onset of 2024, with January scheduled production expected to drop to about 56 GW, down 7.9% MoM. N-type wafers, driven by demand and industry shifts, scheduled production are estimated at 33 GW, raising their market share to 58.9%.
Domestic silicon wafer scheduled production was set for 61.8 GW in December but actual production fell to 60 GW as makers cut back later in the month, due to lower downstream demand and changing market sentiment, per SMM.
PV module scheduled production is set to keep falling, with January's scheduled production expected under 40 GW. This strains solar cells, squeezing profits—especially for P-type cells, now mostly loss-making. Many solar cell lines are reducing orders, scaling down or stopping production, casting a bearish shadow on the silicon wafer market. By the New Year holiday, domestic silicon wafer inventory hit 2 billion pieces, over double early December's levels.
Amid a weakening market, silicon wafer prices are falling. P-type 182mm and 210mm wafers dropped to just 1.9 yuan/piece and 2.9 yuan/piece, hovering at or below break-even, dampening production zeal among some manufacturers.
SMM anticipates the domestic end-user market won't pick up in January-February, keeping module and solar cell scheduled production stable. Crucible prices might drop in January, possibly easing silicon wafer firms' strain. A post-Q1 uptick in large projects and new procurement could rebound the market by March and Q2.