SMM

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2401 aluminum contract opened at 18560 yuan/mt, with its lowest and highest at 18380 yuan/mt and 18575 yuan/mt before closing at 18475 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt or 0.91%. LME aluminum opened at $2,204/mt on Monday, with its high and low at $2,213/mt and $2,174/mt respectively before closing at $2,184/mt, down $16/mt or 0.73%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sounded cautious about further interest rate action in his speech on Friday, saying the risks of under- or over-tightening were now more balanced. The market believes that his speech is dovish and that the Fed may have completed raising interest rates. Domestic macroeconomic data are weakening, and the manufacturing PMI index has been below 50% continuously. Market pins hopes on release of domestic favorable policies at the end of the year, but it will still take time to transmit to the manufacturing industry and other sectors. In terms of fundamentals, there are no further changes expected on the supply side in the short term, and market trading logic generally focuses on the resilience of consumer demand in the off-season. The short-term macro atmosphere is weak and the consumption off-season has a greater impact. Aluminum prices may remain weak and fluctuate. At the same time, inventory continues to be reduced, which has given aluminum prices certain support.