G7 Fresh Sanctions Trigger LME Base Metals Warrants Risks, Especially for Aluminium

Recently, the G7 launched a new round of sanctions against Russia to make up for the loopholes in the previous sanctions on Russia. The European Union and its allies have conducted a diplomatic effort aimed at persuading countries such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Central Asian countries to take tougher action. In addition, Europe and the US are focusing on India's behaviour of reselling Russian energy for profit. According to the CREA report, India has become a major buyer of Russian crude oil, of which about 20% is resold to Europe and the United States.

In addition to energy, metals are also the target of further sanctions by Europe and the US on Russia. In 2022, Russia's aluminium output was 3.84 million mt, accounting for about 6% of the world's total output; Russia's copper output was 1.04 million mt, accounting for about 4% of the global total output. Nickel output in Russia was nearly 200,000 mt, accounting for about 7% of production. Since LME refused to issue a ban on Russian metals in 2022, the proportion of Russian metals in LME warehouses has increased, but is still lower than historical highs.

In January 2023, the share of Russian copper stood at 94% (54,950 mt), nickel 16% (42,774 mt) and aluminium 40.5% (93,750 mt). Among them, aluminium deserves special attention. Of the 492,000 mt of aluminium held by the LME at the end of April, cargoes from Russia accounted for more than 50%. There are signs that traders, including IXM and Trafigura Group, intend to withdraw non-Russian metals from the LME in order to avoid possible sanctions risks, which has greatly increased the dependence of the LME aluminium contract on Russian aluminium. If the circulation of Russian nickel is sanctioned later, there will be risks for LME aluminium warrants.

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