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Pada 27 Januari, kontrak timah SHFE sn2603 yang paling banyak diperdagangkan bergerak sideways dalam kisaran 430.000 yuan selama sesi pagi. Setelah pembukaan sore, didorong oleh LME, kontrak ini membalikkan tren penurunan sebelumnya, meroket dengan cepat, dan terus menguat, akhirnya ditutup pada 451.150 yuan/ton, dengan kenaikan harian 1,93%. Di LME, timah tiga bulan menyentuh tinggi 56.480 dolar AS/ton sebelum melemah dan terakhir dikutip pada 55.210 dolar AS/ton.
Pergerakan harga timah baru-baru ini terutama didukung oleh sentimen makro dan narasi industri. Berita tentang ketatnya pasokan dan kenaikan harga di industri chip dan semikonduktor, didorong oleh pengembangan AI, terus dirilis, meningkatkan ekspektasi jangka panjang untuk penggunaan timah di sektor-sektor baru. Di sisi berita, kapasitas proses 3nm canggih TSMC dipesan hingga 2027. Laporan Counterpoint Research juga menunjukkan bahwa pengiriman chip AI ASIC diperkirakan tiga kali lipat dari level 2024 pada 2027 dan berpotensi melampaui pengiriman GPU pada 2028, semakin memperkuat ekspektasi untuk peran timah dalam rantai pasok teknologi baru.
Namun, dari perspektif fundamental, pasar masih menunjukkan dinamika penawaran dan permintaan yang lesu. Penawaran keseluruhan tetap stabil, tetapi ekspektasi untuk pemulihan produksi di tambang Myanmar dan perkembangan kebijakan ekspor Indonesia memerlukan pemantauan ketat. Di sisi permintaan, harga yang terus tinggi tetap menekan konsumsi. Perusahaan solder dan elektronik hilir umumnya mempertahankan operasi inventaris rendah, membeli dengan hati-hati hanya untuk kebutuhan mendesak. Seiring mendekatnya Tahun Baru Imlek, beberapa perusahaan secara bertahap mengurangi tingkat operasi, memasuki masa liburan lebih awal, menjaga transaksi pasar spot lesu.
Kesimpulannya, didukung oleh sentimen makro dan ekspektasi pengembangan, harga timah berfluktuasi di level tinggi, tetapi kehati-hatian diperlukan terhadap risiko volatilitas yang timbul dari potensi divergensi yang melebar antara harga tinggi dan fundamental.
