In late January 2026, China’s domestic trimanganese tetroxide market presents a two-way game of rising cost pressure and steadily recovering demand. Sustained price increases of upstream raw materials such as electrolytic manganese and manganese sulfate have imposed heavy cost burdens on manufacturers. Meanwhile, rising prices of downstream lithium manganate, coupled with the release of pre-holiday restocking demand ahead of the Spring Festival, have provided solid support for the market.Under the mutual restraint of bullish and bearish factors, market prices have maintained stable operation, and the industry generally expects trimanganese tetroxide prices to stay largely flat before the Spring Festival.
Dual Pressure on the Raw Material Side Drives Continuous Rise in Production Costs
The price of electrolytic manganese, a core raw material, has stopped falling and rebounded recently, pushing up the procurement costs of trimanganese tetroxide producers. As of January 29, the mainstream quotation for 99.7% electrolytic manganese flakes stood at 17,900–18,100 yuan per ton, up roughly 1.1% from the early-month low, with a clear trend of stabilization and recovery. As the key feedstock for trimanganese tetroxide production, fluctuations in electrolytic manganese prices directly affect the cost accounting of trimanganese tetroxide.
Steady Recovery on the Demand Side Consolidates Market Foundation with Multiple Supports
As the Spring Festival approaches, concentrated restocking demand from downstream lithium manganate enterprises has become more prominent. To prepare for post-holiday production, downstream manufacturers including lithium manganate and electronic material producers have stepped up their procurement enthusiasm recently, locking in trimanganese tetroxide supplies in advance. Market trading activity has improved significantly compared with earlier periods.On the supply side, the current trimanganese tetroxide industry boasts sufficient capacity, which can effectively meet downstream restocking demand and maintain a balanced supply-demand structure. In addition, steady demand from other downstream sectors such as electronics and magnetic materials has further consolidated the demand foundation of the trimanganese tetroxide market.
Market Outlook: Balance Between Bullish and Bearish Factors Ensures Stable Prices Before the Holiday
Overall, the domestic trimanganese tetroxide market is currently in a state where cost pressure and demand support counterbalance each other. It is difficult for short-term internal and external factors to break the existing equilibrium, so market prices are expected to remain largely stable ahead of the Spring Festival.
From the cost perspective, although electrolytic manganese prices have stopped declining and rebounded, they lack momentum for a sharp surge in the follow-up and are forecast to fluctuate within a narrow range.On the demand front, downstream restocking demand will persist for one to two weeks before the Spring Festival, keeping market trading activity at a high level and maintaining solid demand support. After the holiday, as downstream enterprises resume work and production, demand from sectors including lithium manganate will gradually return to normal, providing sustained support for the trimanganese tetroxide market.In the long run, driven by the rapid development of new energy vehicles, energy storage and other fields, demand for lithium manganate is expected to grow continuously, which will boost the steady expansion of trimanganese tetroxide demand and deliver a positive outlook for the industry.
