SMM Stainless Steel Futures Weekly Review
January 12 - 16, 2026 | The Most-Traded Contract SS2603
Key Points This Week
The market this week was characterized by a "cost center shift driving a sharp rise in futures, while spot high-price transactions were hindered." The breakthrough of high-grade NPI prices above the 1,000 yuan mark acted as the core engine, coupled with central bank liquidity injections, leading to a significant revaluation of stainless steel. However, fear of high prices emerged in the spot market, with trading activity heating up then cooling down, accumulating risks of a widening spot-futures price spread.
Low Willingness to Trade, Only Restocking for Essential Needs
Raw Material Frenzy, Valuation Reshaped
The core engine of this week's market movement was the "significant rise" on the cost side. Raw material prices saw a milestone breakthrough, fundamentally altering the market's pricing logic.
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1
NPI Broke Through 1,000 Yuan
High-grade NPI offers surged to 1,017.5 yuan/mtu, rising significantly WoW. Uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy was the main driver.
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2
Ferrochrome Followed Suit
High-carbon ferrochrome prices were raised to 8,425 yuan/mt (50% metal content), helping to lift the production cost floor.
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3
Passive Revaluation
Under the logic of "flour being more expensive than bread," the futures rise was more of a cost-driven passive revaluation, forcing steel mills to significantly raise their guidance prices.
SS2603 Simulated Price Trend
Raw Material Cost Increase Comparison
NPI Breaking 1,000 Yuan Was the Biggest Variable This Week
Next Week's Outlook: High-Altitude Game Period
As futures stabilized above the 14,400 level, the market entered a game stage of "feeling the chill at great heights." Strong cost support limits the downside room, but sluggish spot transactions constitute an upward resistance.
