Next week, key economic data to be released include China's full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, the US November core PCE price index annual rate, and the final US January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Recent overseas geopolitical and tariff issues have emerged one after another, while the US stance has softened slightly, leading to a weakening of market risk aversion sentiment and a temporary pause in the price rise pace of gold and silver. Funds in the lead market trading will also focus on the current fundamentals.
For LME lead, since January, overseas lead ingot inventory has been declining for half a month consecutively, with a cumulative reduction of nearly 34,000 mt. The destocking factors include improved lead consumption in Southeast Asia and imports to the Chinese market, supporting LME lead to continue holding up well. Next week, after the fund factor weakens, lead prices can still rely on the destocking factor to hover at highs. LME lead is expected to trade between $2,040-2,100/mt next week.
Domestically, for SHFE lead, contrary to the overseas market, lead ingot inventory is gradually accumulating. In January, consumption in the largest consumption segment of the lead-acid battery market—the e-bike lead-acid battery market—weakened, downstream enterprise demand declined, and smelter plant inventory and social warehouses accumulated simultaneously, with spot discounts widening. It is expected that after the fund factor weakens subsequently, lead prices will pull back relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract will trade between 17,250-17,650 yuan/mt next week.
Spot price forecast: 17,050-17,350 yuan/mt. For primary lead, smelter maintenance and resumption coexist, while current market circulating supply is ample. Additionally, after next week's delivery, supply will re-enter the circulation market, making spot market discount transactions more common. For secondary lead, haze warnings have been activated in some regions, leading to certain production cuts at secondary lead enterprises, which will appropriately ease the shipment pressure on smelters. However, before lead consumption improves, secondary lead will still trade at a discount. In terms of lead consumption, lead-acid battery market consumption shows no improvement yet. Particularly with high lead prices, downstream enterprises will maintain a state of just-in-time procurement.
