Next week, key economic data releases include the US December non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate and the US November retail sales monthly rate, while the US Fed will publish the Beige Book. Recent market trading has continuously revolved around risk events such as US tariffs and geopolitical issues. Particularly after the temporary end of the speculative frenzy in assets like silver, market attention on macro risk events has intensified.
On the LME lead front, after the New Year holiday, excluding the sharp rally driven by fund flows, the overseas lead market also resumed normal trading post-holiday. LME lead inventory dropped by over 15,000 mt compared to pre-holiday levels. Meanwhile, some uncertainties emerged in overseas mine production and transportation, with lead concentrate prices remaining firm, continuing to support lead prices. LME lead is expected to consolidate within a range of $1,980-2,065/mt next week.
Domestically, for SHFE lead, weak lead consumption in China has become more pronounced. Lead smelter plant inventories and social warehouse stocks both increased, while spot discounts for lead widened. Additionally, as SHFE lead enters the delivery period next week, suppliers are relocating stocks to delivery warehouses, and visible lead ingot inventory is expected to have further room to rise, potentially weighing on lead prices and leading to a weaker trend. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to trade between 17,050-17,500 yuan/mt next week.
Spot price forecast: 17,000-17,350 yuan/mt. For primary lead, lead smelters have resumed production, and finished product inventories are relatively high, with spot transactions generally conducted at discounts. Next week's SHFE lead delivery may alleviate suppliers' sales pressure to some extent through warehouse shipments, and spot discounts are expected to widen only modestly. Meanwhile, secondary lead cannot participate in delivery and relies solely on actual consumption. Against the backdrop of high lead inventories, secondary refined lead will continue to trade at large discounts. On the demand side, downstream market consumption shows significant divergence, and lead demand is fragmented. If lead prices stop falling and stabilize next week, some restocking demand for rigid needs may emerge.
