SMM Jan. 9:
This week, the secondary refined lead market showed a pattern of loose supply and cautious demand. Lead prices rose significantly during the week, secondary lead production increased, and spot order supply continued to rise; while downstream battery enterprises saw rising risk aversion sentiment, and purchase willingness was generally weak. Finished product inventories at secondary lead smelters gradually accumulated, and to accelerate capital turnover, most enterprises chose to expand discounts to promote sales. This week, the mainstream ex-factory price including tax for secondary refined lead spot orders was at a discount of 225-25 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. As the most-traded SHFE lead contract approached delivery, social inventory of lead ingots was expected to rise; meanwhile, SMM expects secondary lead production to continue its growth trend next week, while expectations for an improvement in downstream battery enterprises' stockpiling willingness are poor. Overall, the discount situation for short-term secondary refined lead offers is expected to persist.
Additionally, winter is the off-season for waste lead-acid battery retirement, collection volume at retail stores declined, recyclers were bullish, and holding back cargoes prompted smelters to raise purchase offers; raw material costs for smelters increased. According to SMM's comprehensive profit and loss model for secondary lead enterprises, as of January 9, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss value for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was 79 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-sized enterprises it was -136 yuan/mt (by-product revenue in the model excludes tin and antimony). With high raw material costs and large discounts on finished product prices, smelter profits gradually weakened.
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