SMM December 31:
The market awaited price guidance from downstream benchmark enterprises' aluminum fluoride tenders during the week, with overall trading mediocre. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt, while cryolite prices remained stable, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt.
Raw material side, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder, a core raw material for aluminum fluoride, concentrated in the range of 3,150-3,450 yuan/mt. Market trading activity remained sluggish this week, with downstream enterprises mainly restocking based on demand, but overall wait-and-see sentiment remained strong. Fluorite prices overall held steady. Meanwhile, prices for aluminum hydroxide, another key raw material for aluminum fluoride, continued to decline. According to SMM statistics, its weighted average price was 1,676 yuan/mt, down 1.24% WoW. In the sulfuric acid market, sulfur prices pulled back, leading to loosened cost support; sulfuric acid prices pulled back from highs during the week and then stabilized. Overall, simultaneous declines in aluminum hydroxide and sulfuric acid prices effectively alleviated cost pressure on the aluminum fluoride production side.
Supply side, affected by continuously rising production costs, aluminum fluoride enterprises faced gradually increasing production pressure, coupled with environmental protection-related controls in some regions, leading to a MoM decline in overall industry supply. Demand side, operating aluminum capacity remained basically stable, providing solid rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride. However, some downstream enterprises currently maintained ample inventory levels, resulting in an overall pullback in market procurement activity, which exerted some downward pressure on aluminum fluoride market prices.
Brief Review: Cost side, although showing signs of marginal weakening recently, alleviating some production pressure, overall costs remained high, limiting enterprise profit margins. The rise in sulfuric acid prices within the month formed strong cost support, providing a clear driver for aluminum fluoride price increases next month. During the week, January tender pricing from downstream benchmark aluminum enterprises was not yet fully finalized. Currently, according to SMM, a Shandong aluminum enterprise raised its tender price by 550 yuan/mt. Subsequent attention should be closely paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.
