SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 5, 2026:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) maintained a fluctuating downward trend before the holiday, hovering around 322,000 yuan/mt and closing at 322,920 yuan/mt.
Macro: (1) On Monday, prices of precious metals such as gold and silver rose as geopolitical risks intensified after the US captured Venezuelan President Maduro, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. Nicky Shiels, head of research at precious metals refiner MKS Pamp SA, stated in a report: "Today, the market has to reassess not only the risks in Venezuela but also factors such as US uncertainty and military influence." (2) According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by CAAM, in November 2025, automobile imports totaled 43,000 units, down 1.8% MoM and 29.1% YoY; the import value was $1.92 billion, down 3.8% MoM and 41.1% YoY. From January to November 2025, automobile imports reached 447,000 units, down 29.9% YoY; the import value was $22.17 billion, down 38.6% YoY.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters were expected to maintain stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.
Spot market: At year-end, the shipment pace of tin smelters generally slowed down, leaving some tin ingots still in transit and unable to be delivered to warehouses on time, leading to a significant decline in physical inventory. Meanwhile, demand provided some support; recent continuous declines in tin prices stimulated rigid procurement demand from downstream enterprises, with some buyers restocking during price pullbacks.
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