SMM

Monday, January 5, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,495/mt during last Friday's night session. After opening, its price center fluctuated upward, touching a high of $12,559/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $12,446.5/mt. It then maintained rangebound fluctuations near the session's end with the price center moving downward, finally closing at $12,460.5/mt, down 0.29%. Trading volume decreased by 6,978 lots to 12,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,623 lots to 336,000 lots, primarily due to long position liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2602 was closed last Friday night due to the New Year's Day holiday, with no night session trading.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On January 1, Capstone Copper Corp. announced that Union #2 at its Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will commence strike action starting January 2, affecting approximately 22% of the total workforce. The company stated that during the strike, the mine will safely and gradually reduce operations, maintaining about 30% of normal production, and remains willing to continue negotiations to reach an agreement.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on December 31, the SHFE copper 2601 contract rose from 98,500 yuan/mt to above 99,600 yuan/mt before paring some gains. The contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was between 120-60 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was around 1,200 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, following the New Year's Day holiday, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to narrow compared to last week, considering holiday funding costs. As the delivery date approaches, suppliers are expected to deliver more cargo to delivery warehouses, and spot discounts for SHFE copper are anticipated to narrow gradually.
(2) Guangdong: On December 31, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was traded at discounts of 200-130 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 165 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at discounts of 280-260 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 270 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 98,845 yuan/mt, up 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 98,740 yuan/mt, up 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory increased for the 10th consecutive day, spot trades were quiet, and a recovery is expected only after the holiday, regarding the flow of deliverable cargo.
(3) Imported copper: On December 31, warrant prices were $46-56/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. B/L prices were $44-54/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2-12/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late December and early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on December 31, the futures closing price was 98,650 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -190 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 1,400 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 86,900-87,100 yuan/mt, up 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,378 yuan/mt, down 117 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,090 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, trading of secondary copper rod was very light during the day. Meanwhile, under high copper prices, traders of recycled copper raw materials were not actively purchasing, waiting to see if copper prices remain stable after the holiday before making decisions.
Price: On the macro front, the US launched a swift strike on Venezuela, coupled with Saudi Arabia's renewed airstrikes on Yemen, increasing geopolitical risks and sparking market concerns over supply disruptions. Crude oil prices rose, boosting copper prices. The market widely expects next week's economic data to influence judgments on the US Fed's policies and global market trends, while safe-haven sentiment also supports the US dollar. On the fundamental side, the supply side continues to be tight, while demand side, as last Friday was the final trading day of 2025, saw mediocre intraday trading. The fundamentals present a weak supply-demand pattern. Overall, copper prices are expected to have limited upside potential today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]