Next week, as the New Year holiday concludes, both the LME and SHFE will resume normal trading. Macro data releases mainly include the US December ISM Manufacturing PMI, US December ADP employment, US December unemployment rate, and US December seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, with focus on their guidance for expectations regarding US Fed interest rate decisions.
For LME lead, driven by the surge in silver and other precious metals, LME lead showed overall strength after returning from the Christmas holiday. Even as precious metals retreated after a rapid rise, LME lead demonstrated strong price resilience, supported by declining LME lead inventory. After the New Year holiday next week, the lead market will return to normal trading, and expectations for rising lead consumption in Southeast Asia in 2026 will support lead prices to fluctuate at highs. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,985-2,025/mt next week.
Domestically for SHFE lead, after the frenzy in silver and other precious metals subsides, the lead market will also return to fundamentals. Post-holiday, primary lead enterprises resume production after maintenance; amid a supply-demand mismatch, the price center of lead is expected to move lower. However, considering the current social inventory base is below 20,000 mt and the supply gap for lead concentrates persists, lead prices possess some resistance to decline. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 17,050-17,500 yuan/mt next week.
Spot price forecast: 16,950-17,350 yuan/mt. Regarding lead consumption, downstream enterprises will resume regular procurement after the holiday, and spot market activity is expected to improve. However, the consumption loss due to downstream enterprise holidays during the festival period means this portion of inventory will take some time to digest. For primary lead, smelters gradually resume production; the supply increase will lead to more circulating spot cargo in the post-holiday market, and spot lead transactions at a discount are expected to increase. For secondary lead, regional production cuts by smelters will widen regional price differences for secondary refined lead, and mainstream regions will maintain discount transactions.
