Copper prices hit new record highs again this week. LME copper successfully broke through and held above the $12,000/mt mark before the Christmas holiday, while SHFE copper surged above 97,000 yuan/mt towards the end of the week, with the price center significantly elevated and market sentiment clearly bullish.From a macro perspective, renewed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts were the main driver. US ADP employment data came in significantly below expectations, and the persistently weak ISM manufacturing PMI indicated sluggish economic momentum, collectively reinforcing market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. The US dollar index remained under pressure and pulled back throughout the week, providing clear support for copper prices.
On the fundamentals side, the long-term contract benchmark for copper concentrate TCs was set at $0/mt. According to SMM, the CSPT held its Q4 2025 general manager meeting in Shanghai on the morning of December 25. The CSPT Q4 2025 general manager meeting decided not to set a reference figure for spot copper concentrate TCs in Q1 2026. As sulphuric acid prices showed a pullback trend, concerns emerged about production maintenance pressures at some smelters in 2026. With copper prices repeatedly hitting record highs,coupled with factors such as the off-season, the spot market turned sluggish, and spot premiums fell sharply.
Looking ahead to next week, capital-side sentiment is expected to become the dominant factor driving copper prices, with the overall strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector providing solid support. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,400-12,800/mt, while SHFE copper is forecast to trade between 97,500-100,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, both supply and demand are expected to weaken as transactions shift to cargoes with invoices dated next month. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2601 contract are expected to range from a discount of 300 yuan/mt to a discount of 150 yuan/mt.
