SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, December 22, 2025
On the international macro front last week, the probability of the US Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year was 26.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 73.4%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut was 46.8%, the probability of unchanged rates was 41.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut was 11.5%. Additionally, the EU abandoned the effective ban on internal combustion engines and provided automakers with greater flexibility in transitioning to clean transportation, a move that could slow down the promotion of EVs in Europe. The domestic market overall showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. On the supply side, production at most smelters in December was expected to be relatively stable. Demand side, due to weak market demand for consumer electronics and home appliances, orders significantly decreased, downstream procurement remained cautious, and high prices noticeably suppressed actual consumption. Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their contribution scale remained small and insufficient to offset the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors. Trading activity in the spot market was sluggish, with most traders reporting transactions of only around 10 mt, and a few traders reporting transactions of about one truckload. After restocking at the beginning of the week, downstream and end-user enterprises temporarily replenished their inventory and adopted a wait-and-see attitude towards the current market and prices. Overall, tin prices may continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and investors need to monitor changes in supply-demand dynamics and domestic and overseas policy developments, operating cautiously.
