On the afternoon of December 19, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2601 closed at 339,520 yuan/mt, up 4,520 yuan from the previous day, a gain of about 1.35%. During the session, it once approached the 340,000 mark, hitting a high of 341,800 yuan/mt and a low of 334,680 yuan/mt, with a fluctuation range exceeding 7,000 yuan, indicating significantly intensified market volatility. Meanwhile, the three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was quoted at $42,945/mt, up $25, or 0.06%.
From a macro perspective, the US November CPI rose 2.7% YoY, below market expectations, strengthening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. A weak US dollar, which was in the doldrums, drove funds into commodity markets, further boosting tin prices. However, market risks have accumulated significantly. Indonesia's refined tin exports rebounded sharply to 7,459 mt in November, up nearly two-fold MoM. Additionally, trading in the spot market was sluggish, as high tin prices significantly dampened downstream purchase willingness. Enterprises mainly engaged in essential restocking, with no large-scale stockpiling activities observed. In the short term, prices are in an extremely high historical range and are experiencing sharp fluctuations.
