On the afternoon of December 17, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract, sn2601, rebounded after the previous day's sharp decline, closing at 327,610 yuan/mt at midday, up 4,600 points or approximately 1.42% from the previous day's settlement price. In the international market, LME tin futures closed at $41,515/mt as of December 17, up $560. The tightening spot liquidity in the London market persisted, indicating that tight spot supply continued to support LME prices.
Fundamentally, the ore supply tightness has not fundamentally changed. Although Indonesia's refined tin exports surged 182% MoM to 7,458.64 mt in November, hitting a nearly two-year monthly high, the country's crackdown on illegal mines continues, leaving future output and exports uncertain.
In the short term, SHFE tin found psychological support at the 320,000 yuan key level, while facing technical resistance in the 326,000-328,000 yuan range. The afternoon session will focus on whether open interest shifts from decline to increase and whether spot trading volume follows up. If the ore supply tightness narrative regains traction or macro sentiment further recovers, tin prices may test higher resistance; otherwise, they could hit bottom again or enter a consolidation phase after the rebound.
