This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract hovered at highs as the market sought direction amid multiple intertwined factors. At the midday break, the most-traded SHFE tin contract was quoted at 315,850 yuan/mt, down 2,210 yuan or 0.69% from the previous settlement price. At the opening, the most-traded contract opened lower at 316,010 yuan/mt, with intraday volatility reflecting the current cautious market sentiment. Overnight, LME tin also trended weaker, with three-month LME tin closing at $40,175/mt, down $365 or 0.95%, as overseas markets were more sensitive to shifts in macro sentiment. Although tin prices recently hit three-year highs, the pullback over consecutive trading sessions indicated resistance at current levels, with some bulls opting to take profits. Security risks in the Bisie tin mine area persisted, threatening logistics channels. Demand side showed clear divergence; traditional sectors like consumer electronics remained in the off-season with weak purchase willingness, spot market trading was sluggish, with only sporadic just-in-time procurement.
Overall, SHFE tin is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term, supported below by tight supply and low inventory, but capped above by weak spot transactions and high prices dampening demand. In the afternoon trading session, investors should closely monitor changes in open interest and spot premiums/discounts, while staying alert to potential disruptions from sudden geopolitical news in the DRC that could impact futures.
