Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened higher at $1,998/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the daily moving average. Entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward due to increased long positions, touching a high of $2,019.5/mt. Support at higher levels was somewhat weak, leading to a slight correction at the tail end of the session. It found support below the 20-day moving average and finally closed at $2,016/mt, up $17.5/mt or 0.88%. A large bullish candlestick was recorded.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened lower at 17,200 yuan/mt. It fluctuated upward during the session with a firm upward trend, directly reaching 17,350 yuan/mt and finding support at the 10-day moving average. In the tail end of the session, SHFE lead pulled back slightly, finally closing at 17,305 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt or 0.7%. A small bullish candlestick with no lower shadow was formed.
On the macro front:
US initial jobless claims for the previous week came in at 191,000, compared with market expectations of 220,000. Revelio Labs: US non-farm payrolls in November were expected to decrease by 9,000, while the October figure was revised from a decrease of 9,100 to a decrease of 15,500.
The PBOC will conduct 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations. Ministry of Commerce: Accelerating pilot programs for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and advancing the construction of an international consumption environment. Ministry of Commerce: The Chinese government implements export controls on rare earth-related items in accordance with laws and regulations. State Administration for Market Regulation: New national standard e-bikes are proposed to be included in the 2026 supervision and sampling inspection plan.
:
In the Shanghai market, spot lead ingot supply was limited, with few suppliers offering quotations. Most suppliers primarily sold goods via factory pick-up. Lead prices held up well today, leading to some divergence among suppliers regarding sales strategies; some held prices firm and sold at a premium (against the SMM #1 lead average price), while others lowered their premiums. Suppliers of secondary refined lead showed low sales enthusiasm due to limited spot order availability, resulting in few quotations yesterday. Mainstream tax-included ex-works offers were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while tax-excluded refined lead ex-works offers were between 15,850 and 15,950 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises showed limited purchasing enthusiasm. Transactions for premium cargoes were weak, while other purchases were made as needed.
Inventory: On December 4, LME lead inventory decreased by 5,100 mt to 248,050 mt. As of December 4, the total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions fell to 23,600 mt, down 11,400 mt from November 27 and down 7,100 mt from December 1, reaching a 15-month low.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, primary lead smelters in regions such as Anhui, Jiangxi, and Yunnan underwent maintenance, limiting the supply of delivery brands. While lead prices remained in the doldrums, most suppliers held prices firm for sales. Some downstream enterprises preferred using lead ingots from nearby social warehouses, leading to an expanded decline in social inventory. However, it is noteworthy that in-plant inventories at smelters in some mainstream lead ingot production regions have accumulated, and the next round of lead ingot deliveries is on the agenda. If the spread between futures and spot prices widens in the future, delivery brand supplies may be transferred to delivery warehouses; otherwise, social inventories are likely to remain low. In addition, the trend of lead prices should also focus on the impact of environmental protection-related controls and raw material supply on the production of secondary lead smelters.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.
