During the midday session on November 24, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2512) fluctuated upward. It opened at 291,240 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward during the morning trading session, hit a session high of 296,340 yuan/mt and a low of 290,450 yuan/mt, and settled at 295,580 yuan/mt at midday, up 1.18% from the previous day's settlement price. Overnight, the three-month LME tin contract closed at $36,970/mt, down $65 or 0.18% from the previous day. During the Asian trading session, LME tin prices fluctuated upward, breaking through the $37,000/mt level, while the US dollar index held steady above 100.1 and markets awaited further guidance from US economic data.
From a macro perspective, recent market sentiment has been significantly influenced by changing expectations regarding US Fed policy. New York Fed President Williams' dovish signals have reignited market expectations for a December interest rate cut, with the current probability of a cut rising to around 70%, providing some support to the commodity market. However, the stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data for September has, to some extent, reduced the urgency for rate cuts, giving the US dollar index rebound momentum and putting pressure on dollar-denominated LME tin prices. This tug-of-war on the macro front has led to significant fluctuations in investor risk appetite, resulting in high-frequency volatility in tin prices.
Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract has strong support near 290,000 yuan/mt, but its upside is constrained by cautious macro sentiment and weak spot demand. The afternoon session is expected to see prices continue to fluctuate at highs, with a core trading range of 290,000-297,000 yuan/mt.
