Next week, due to Thanksgiving, the New York Stock Exchange, Chicago Board of Trade, and others will be closed for one day on November 27-28, with early trading hours. Key macroeconomic data releases include the US September retail sales month-on-month rate and the US October core PCE price index YoY. Following this week's US employment data, US Fed officials showed significant divergence regarding a December interest rate cut, with attention turning to next week's Fed Beige Book.
On the LME lead front, LME lead inventory surged by over 40,000 mt in a single day this week, pushing lead ingot stocks to a near three-month high. Concurrently, the US dollar index broke through 100, and LME lead recorded a step-like decline with six consecutive negative sessions. In the short term, overseas lead consumption shows mediocre performance, providing limited support for lead prices. Subsequent focus will be on support from raw materials such as lead concentrates. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,960-2,020/mt next week.
Domestically, for SHFE lead, primary lead and secondary lead smelters saw mixed production changes, with regional supply tightening. However, lead-acid battery market demand remains weak, and downstream enterprises exhibit significant divergence in procurement. Lead ingot destocking is limited, and the supply-demand dynamic remains relatively deadlocked. Lead prices are expected to continue in the doldrums next week, with attention on cost support from secondary lead. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to trade between 17,000-17,400 yuan/mt.
Spot price forecast: 17,000-17,250 yuan/mt. For primary lead, smelters hold low inventory, coupled with maintenance at delivery brands, leading them to hold prices firm for shipments. However, after the new month's long-term contracts commence, spot market circulation volume increases, and a few high premium quotes are expected to be lowered. For secondary lead, smelter profits have shrunk, and secondary refined lead shipment quotes remain firm. If lead prices decline further, discounted trading of secondary refined lead will continue to decrease. On the lead consumption side, as the new month's long-term contracts for lead ingots begin execution next week, downstream enterprises will have more procurement options, with some considering buying the dip, which may provide some support for lead prices.
