SMM data shows that China's stainless steel production in October 2025 increased by 1.47% MoM and 3.38% YoY. By series, 200-series production rose by 2.25% MoM, 300-series increased by 0.58% MoM, and 400-series grew by 2.87% MoM.
In October, overall stainless steel production further increased, but the growth margin was relatively limited. Despite being in the September-October peak season, a traditional consumption peak period, sales cycles shortened due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. Persistent production increases earlier had led to ample market supply, while downstream demand fell short of expectations. After mid-month, transactions remained sluggish, and the off-season arrived early. Some stainless steel mills completed prior maintenance and resumed normal production. Additionally, steel mills had good raw material reserves and production inertia, so overall output saw no significant adjustment during the month. However, due to pessimistic expectations, production enthusiasm among stainless steel mills noticeably declined. By series, the output increases for the 300-series and 400-series were relatively small, while the main growth came from the 200-series, which still had some production profit.
Looking ahead to November, stainless steel production is expected to decline slightly. With the end of the September-October peak season and the arrival of the year-end traditional consumption off-season, end-use demand for stainless steel has weakened significantly, and prices remain in the doldrums. Affected by market pessimism, forward order intake at stainless steel mills is not optimistic. Moreover, mills are still facing inverted cost-price conditions, leading to an overall pullback in production. However, eased Sino-US trade tensions and social inventories of stainless steel, which have not increased further and remain at relatively low levels for the year, continue to support basic demand through just-in-time procurement. Although recent news suggests stainless steel mills may implement production cuts for the 200-series in the next 2-3 months, expectations for actual cuts in November are low. Additionally, there are no significant production cut plans for the 300-series and 400-series, so the decline in output is expected to be relatively limited.
